095
FXUS61 KAKQ 110558
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK (THURSDAY) WAS MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH
AFTERNOON UPDATE.
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF SE VA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED, MAINLY LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING
DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
3) HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED, MAINLY LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA TODAY, BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER ELEVATED FARTHER SOUTH
AS WELL (SFC-BASED CAPE TO ~2500 J/KG AND ML CAPE TO ~1500 J/KG.
SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK (~20 KT), SO NO WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH MINIMAL SHEAR, EXPECT
STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT
WILL LINGER CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOWS
ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU-FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING ON THE MID-
ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SPARK MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SPC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY, MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER STORM
COVERAGE (AND WEAKER SHEAR TO THE SOUTH). GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENTLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THU AFTN/EVENING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY,
BUT DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT LACKING FOR THURSDAY. SOME
ROBUST PULSE- TYPE CELLS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHEAR IS
PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THE
OTHER ISSUE THURSDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND UP THE W
SIDE OF MUCH OF THE BAY WHERE DEW PTS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX
BELOW THE LOWER 70S, LEADING TO HEAT INDICES ~105. TEMPS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL VA (UPPER 90S), BUT
DEW PTS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT FALLING A FEW DEGREES DURING
PEAK HEATING. WILL ALLOW TONIGHT'S SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF THE
HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MAINLY E-SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY HAS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING DEW PTS MIX DOWN INTO THE 60S
ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS CONTINUES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. SHEAR IS AGAIN NOT LOOKING
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE
FRONT AND VERY HOT TEMPS, THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SVR
THREAT OVERALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING
DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO
THE E-SE. WHILE THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WARM, THE WIND SHIFT TO N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER
DEW PTS AREA-WIDE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SHOW THE PWAT
ANOMALIES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING W-SW BEYOND THAT, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL TREND COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS FALLING
BACK INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A SW WIND 5-10 KT. VFR
CONTINUES FOR MOST OF TODAY, THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING. INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS AT ALL BUT ECG FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS REMAIN SW 5-10 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A GREATER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS, LOCALIZED VSBY
REDUCTIONS, AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. LOWER RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNING SUNDAY-MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF
THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS
WERE SW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR MOST. WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED SCAS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY SUN. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED S WINDS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SCAS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY
AND SCATTERED STORMS ON FRI. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CONVECTION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986)
- RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914)
- SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914)
- ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
- RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986)
- SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947)
- ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ078-084-085-089-090-097-098-520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR/SW
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB
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