214
FXUS61 KAKQ 112324
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY COVERING PORTIONS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-85 AND I-95.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER, AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
3) HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ALOFT, RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF COAST WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN
THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RESULTING
IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105F. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST/EASTERN SHORE, BUT DUE TO MOISTURE MIXING
ALOFT INLAND, THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CHES. BAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED AND CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES (>6.0
C/KM) AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MLCAPE (>2000 J/KG) THIS EVENING THAT
COULD BE TAPPED INTO IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE
LACK OF SHEAR WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOT IN FAVOR OF CONVECTION INITIATING OUTSIDE OF STRAY TO
ISOLATED POP-UP NATURE STORMS. TIMING OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
TO BE IN THE LATE EVENING AROUND SUNSET OR LATER AND COMING TO AN
END BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. SPC MAINTAINS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, NEARING 100F. RECORDS
WILL AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY WITH SPECIFICS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS GENERALLY EAST
OF I-85 AND I-95 FOR FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN APPROACH
105F. IT IS LIKELY THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BETTER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM A FORECASTED LARGE DRY LAYER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS COULD END UP MIXING DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE TODAY'S HIGH, CAUSING PLACES IN
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO STILL SEE HEAT INDICES TO 105F. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS CONTINUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EVENING AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N. SHEAR IS AGAIN NOT LOOKING
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS MODESTLY DURING
THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND VERY HOT TEMPS, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SVR THREAT OVERALL. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT COASTAL NC.
A 30% WIND CONTOUR REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, WITH
WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E-SE. WHILE THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM, THE WIND SHIFT TO
N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER DEW PTS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE AND LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING W-SW BEYOND THAT, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED A DAY 4 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A SLIGHT RISK. IT WILL
TREND COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S
ALONG WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 724 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
INITIATED ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR ECG BUT ARE REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY. ACROSS THE NORTH SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 01-05Z THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING BRIEF
IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT THERE REMAINS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30
GROUPS RATHER THAN ADDING ANY TEMPO WORDING AT THIS TIME. WINDS
REMAIN SW TO AROUND 10 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES
(LOCALLY ONSHORE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN SE VA). VARIABLY
CLOUDY THIS EVENING, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY
SUNNY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SW WINDS 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS, LOCALIZED
VSBY REDUCTIONS, AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE SATURDAY, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNING SUNDAY- MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED
N-NE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY AND S-SE WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF TO
THE SE OF THE REGION. WINDS WERE GENERALLY ~10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES ~1 FT. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION) PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE EARLY SATURDAY, AND WITH
DRIER AIR MIXING IN, EXPECT TO SEE A FEW HRS WORTH OF WINDS TO
NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT- LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES,
AS THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE S-SE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND INCREASE
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH ANY POTENTIAL SCAS WILL BE VERY MARGINAL AT
BEST. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986)
- RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914)
- SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914)
- ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
- RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986)
- SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947)
- ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>090-092-
097-098-512-514>525-528>531.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ075>078-
084>086-089-090-097-098-520-522>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/RHR
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...LKB
CLIMATE...LKB
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