091
FXUS61 KAKQ 121857
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH 321 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NNW OF A LINE
FROM FARMVILLE TO RICHMOND TO KILMARNOCK.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED (POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE) LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER, AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
3) HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
(POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE) LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100F IN A FEW LOCATIONS. RECORDS HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN
JEOPARDY, SEE SPECIFICS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE. WHILE DEWPOINTS MAY END UP
MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN WHAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY. THUS, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 105F FOR MOST INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY TRY TO APPROACH 110F
CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NC, BUT THIS PROBABLY WON'T BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT WARNINGS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (2 OUT OF 5) FOR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG.
IN ADDITION, DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SHEAR, THOUGH IT WILL BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY,
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ~20 KNOTS (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH).
THE TIMING OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME INTO THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
FINALLY, IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THERE IS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IF RAIN RATES ARE HEAVY ENOUGH OVER A LONG
AMOUNT OF TIME (ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS), THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E-SE. WHILE THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM, THE WIND SHIFT TO
N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE (50S/60S COMPARED TO THE
60S/70S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST, TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING W-SW BEYOND THAT, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (2 OUT OF 5) ON SUNDAY
FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR VA AND MD COUNTIES AND A MARGINAL RISK (1
OUT OF 5) FOR NE NC. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. IT WILL TREND COOLER
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH
AT LEAST DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
CU HAS BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER THE SE AREA, INCLUDING ORF AND ECG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA MOVING WEST TO EAST. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR THE TERMINALS, BUT PROB30S REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS
STAGGERING START TIMES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT 22Z AT RIC AND
SBY TO 00Z AT ECG. ANY STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS, LOCALIZED VSBY RESTRICTIONS, AND HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS WILL
TURN FROM THE W TO N BY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SUNDAY, WHICH COULD IMPACT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 2 FT, WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AND RIVERS AROUND 1 FT OR LESS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING PRECEDING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER 10 PM
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT N-NW POST-FRONTAL. MINIMAL
CAA IS ANTICIPATED AND THUS, LITTLE TO NO SURGE OF NORTH WINDS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER AND MID BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING EFFECTS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE SSE-SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WHICH
CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-4 FT
SUNDAY EVENING WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AT ~2 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO ~20 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY DURING SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTH WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET ON THURSDAY, 6/11 AT RIC (98)
AND SBY (98). A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS TIED AT ORF
(75).
RECORD HIGH AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
(FRIDAY, 6/12):
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: FRI 6/12
- ORF: 99 (1986)
- RIC: 100 (1914)
- SBY: 98 (1914)
- ECG: 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: FRI 6/12
- ORF: 76 (2016)
- RIC: 74 (1986)
- SBY: 75 (1947)
- ECG: 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...AC/MAM
CLIMATE...AJB/LKB
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