440
FXUS61 KAKQ 130600
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED (POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE) LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER, AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
3) HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
(POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE) LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES
ARE IN THE LOWER 100S, NEARING OR EXCEEDING 105F IN SOME AREAS. CU
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F. RECORDS HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE
IN JEOPARDY, SEE SPECIFICS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF
THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE, UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. BASED ON
THE MINIMAL CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND THE 18Z SOUNDING
FROM RNK, THERE IS A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ONCE INITIATED, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE >2000 J/KG
WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 C/KM IN THE MID-LEVELS BASED ON
SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS WILL GIVE THE STORMS THE NEEDED INGREDIENTS
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT STILL RELATIVELY MINIMAL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING HAIL IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT
GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING NATURE EXPECTED, THESE INSTANCES SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED. A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RICHMOND AND PETERSBURG
UNTIL 9 PM. AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH IF STORMS
BASED ON STORM TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E-SE. WHILE THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM, THE WIND SHIFT TO
N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AREA-WIDE (50S/60S COMPARED TO THE
60S/70S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST, TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID AGAIN SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING W-SW BEYOND THAT, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL TEND TO STALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (2 OUT OF 5) ON SUNDAY FOR A
MAJORITY OF OUR VA AND MD COUNTIES AND A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5)
FOR NE NC. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SMALL MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, BUT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS TIME. IT WILL TREND COOLER INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S ALONG WITH AT LEAST
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/13 TAF
PERIOD. STORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED, WITH ONLY A FEW
REMAINING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY ALONG THE COAST). A
COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY S/SW OF ECG. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A
MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH BASES ~4000 TO
6000 FEET. WINDS START OUT OF THE N-NNE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY, TURNING TO THE SW THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD IMPACT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THOUGH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER
ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE
EASTERN TAF SITES.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 2 FT, WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY AND RIVERS AROUND 1 FT OR LESS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING PRECEDING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AFTER 10 PM
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT N-NW POST-FRONTAL. MINIMAL
CAA IS ANTICIPATED AND THUS, LITTLE TO NO SURGE OF NORTH WINDS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF 10-15 KT GUSTS
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER AND MID BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING EFFECTS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE SSE-SE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WHICH
CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-4 FT
SUNDAY EVENING WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AT ~2 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO ~20 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY DURING SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTH WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET ON THURSDAY, 6/11 AT RIC (98)
AND SBY (98). A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS TIED AT ORF
(75).
RECORD HIGH AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
(FRIDAY, 6/12):
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: FRI 6/12
- ORF: 99 (1986)
- RIC: 100 (1914)
- SBY: 98 (1914)
- ECG: 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: FRI 6/12
- ORF: 76 (2016)
- RIC: 74 (1986)
- SBY: 75 (1947)
- ECG: 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC/MAM
CLIMATE...AJB/LKB
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