061
FXUS61 KAKQ 131936
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR SUNDAY. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A 30% WIND PROBABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LESS HUMID AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
2) A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LESS HUMID AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE,
MUCH LESS HUMIDITY TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OR 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
(COMPARED TO THE 70S FROM PREVIOUS DAYS). TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FOR SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AREA-WIDE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH. 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND ~2.00" PWATS RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT, COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA, WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO 1500-2500 J/KG. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH SHOULD SHOULD RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE (~1500+ J/KG). FINALLY, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS,
WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS, SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH A SPC
PLACING THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, NOTABLY SPC HAS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A 30% WIND OUTLOOK. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS,
WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY PLACE A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN AN ENHANCED
RISK (3 OUT OF 5). A FEW DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BRINGING AT LEAST
A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
FINALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE URBAN AREA. WPC HAS PLACED A
SMALL, DAY 2 ERO OVER THE HAMPTON ROADS METRO AREA. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE FLOODING
THREAT LIMITED. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS,
THE FRONT LIKELY STALLS NEAR THE COAST ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE (LOCALLY UPPER 90S). WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY, HEAT
INDEX VALUES INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF I-64
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR SOME OF THIS AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID
TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY LINGERS NEAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO MONDAY ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER LIKELY EXPANDS A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE,
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH (UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 EASTERN SHORE). TEMPERATURES MAY STAY IN THE 70S FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/13 TAF
PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS AFTN, THE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST OF THIS IS BEYOND THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THOUGH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
MAY LINGER ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY. BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END
SCAS MONDAY IN THE BAY.
A STALLED BOUNDARY HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. E-NE WINDS AVERAGE 5-10 KT THIS
AFTN, WITH SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT AND WAVES GENERALLY ~1 FT IN THE
BAY. THE WINDS REMAIN ~10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT, AND SHIFT TO THE
S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTN/EVENING) THAT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, S-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO ~15KT OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS AND 15-20KT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SW SUNDAY
EVENING. LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE RATHER LOW FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE BAY (20-30%), AND WITH THE TYPICAL BIAS WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY,
THOUGH SMWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH CONVECTION. SEAS
INCREASE TO 3-4FT, UP TO 5FT WELL PAST 20 NM. WINDS TURN TO THE
W BEHIND THE FRONT (~15KT) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN TO THE N
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE NORTHERLY
SURGES, AND LATEST WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED TO >50% OVER MUCH
OF THE BAY MONDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
STARTING TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST. TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE HEADLINES, BUT THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHORT-
LIVED SCAS FOR THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES
MONDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT MONDAY, AND 2-3 FT IN THE BAY,
WITH DIMINISHING WAVES/SEAS BY MON AFTERNOON.
TIDES: ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL
LEAD TO MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE
PORTIONS OF THE BAY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...AC/LKB
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