891
FXUS61 KAKQ 131940
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SUNDAY REMAINS WITH A 30% WIND PROBABILITY
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING.
2) A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING.
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS STALLED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
TONIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE ABLEMARLE SOUND THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S RETURNS AREA-WIDE FROM THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY ENVIRONMENTAL CAPPING. COMBINED
WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE CONTINUES TO
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES >6.0
C/KM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE MORE SHEAR PRESENT THAT LAST
NIGHT'S STORMS WITH AVERAGES AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER
ALMOST THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THERE WAS SOME COLLABORATION WITH SPC
ABOUT POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO AN ENHANCED RISK, BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES, SPC HAS CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT RISK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN UPGRADE WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS,
GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM IS
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH+. A FEW DISCRETE/SUPERCELLS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
BRINGING AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. FINALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AREAS.
GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES, TRAINING STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE FAST, SO ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. WPC
HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 2 ERO TO COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS, THE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS NEAR THE COAST ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE AREA (LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST) ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK IN,
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID
TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY LINGERS NEAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD COVER LIKELY EXPANDS A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON
TUESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EASTERN SHORE). TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
IN THE UPPER 70S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THURSDAY
MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/13 TAF
PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS THIS AFTN, THE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST OF THIS IS BEYOND THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THOUGH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
MAY LINGER ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY. BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END
SCAS MONDAY IN THE BAY.
A STALLED BOUNDARY HAD MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. E-NE WINDS AVERAGE 5-10 KT THIS
AFTN, WITH SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT AND WAVES GENERALLY ~1 FT IN THE
BAY. THE WINDS REMAIN ~10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT, AND SHIFT TO THE
S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTN/EVENING) THAT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, S-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO ~15KT OVER THE BAY AND RIVERS AND 15-20KT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SW SUNDAY
EVENING. LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE RATHER LOW FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE BAY (20-30%), AND WITH THE TYPICAL BIAS WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY,
THOUGH SMWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH CONVECTION. SEAS
INCREASE TO 3-4FT, UP TO 5FT WELL PAST 20 NM. WINDS TURN TO THE
W BEHIND THE FRONT (~15KT) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN TO THE N
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE THESE NORTHERLY
SURGES, AND LATEST WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED TO >50% OVER MUCH
OF THE BAY MONDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
STARTING TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE IN THE FORECAST. TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE HEADLINES, BUT THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHORT-
LIVED SCAS FOR THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUND AND LOWER JAMES
MONDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT MONDAY, AND 2-3 FT IN THE BAY,
WITH DIMINISHING WAVES/SEAS BY MON AFTERNOON.
TIDES: ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL
LEAD TO MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE
PORTIONS OF THE BAY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...AC/LKB
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