925
FXUS61 KAKQ 140636
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
236 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SUNDAY REMAINS WITH A 30% WIND PROBABILITY
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
00Z TAF WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING.
2) A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING.
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS STALLED AS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
TONIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO TO THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE ABLEMARLE SOUND THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S RETURNS AREA-WIDE FROM THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY ENVIRONMENTAL CAPPING. COMBINED
WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE CONTINUES TO
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES >6.0
C/KM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE MORE SHEAR PRESENT THAT LAST
NIGHT'S STORMS WITH AVERAGES AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER
ALMOST THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THERE WAS SOME COLLABORATION WITH SPC
ABOUT POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO AN ENHANCED RISK, BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES, SPC HAS CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT RISK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN UPGRADE WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS,
GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM IS
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH+. A FEW DISCRETE/SUPERCELLS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
BRINGING AT LEAST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. FINALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AREAS.
GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES, TRAINING STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE FAST, SO ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED. WPC
HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 2 ERO TO COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SHORE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS, THE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS NEAR THE COAST ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE AREA (LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST) ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK IN,
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHSIDE
HAMPTON ROADS AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID
TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM SUNDAY LINGERS NEAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN CHANCES/CLOUD COVER LIKELY EXPANDS A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON
TUESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EASTERN SHORE). TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
IN THE UPPER 70S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THURSDAY
MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20
KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER 20Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS WITH STORMS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND UNCERTAINTIES ON
SPECIFIC TIMING AT EACH SITE. STORMS TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS LATE
IN THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES BY LATER MONDAY
MORNING . BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR SE WINDS OF 15-20KT, BECOMING
NW EARLY TOMORROW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10KT IS ONGOING AS OF EARLY MORNING OBS. SEAS
ARE AROUND 2FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY/RIVERS ARE 1FT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, TURNING SSE BY
MID-DAY. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY (~15 OVER THE
RIVERS). SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY STARTING AT 21Z. DECIDED
AGAINST SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE WINDS FALL A BIT SHORT OF
CRITERIA AND SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4FT. WINDS
OVERALL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO ~15KT LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
INCLUDE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS, AND SMALL HAIL. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SURGE
BACK UP NEAR 20KT THROUGH MID MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE
ADVISORIES OUT THROUGH THE SECOND SURGE FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE, AND
BECAUSE WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OF 5-10KT TUESDAY THEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK MAY AGAIN BRING ELEVATED
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
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