414
FXUS61 KAKQ 141041
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
641 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM EVOLUTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE FORECAST HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER FOR THE MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
2) A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK. A RETURN TO
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S) RETURNS AREA-WIDE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT, COMBINED
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA, WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1500-
2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE (~1200
J/KG). FINALLY, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WIND SHEAR WILL BE
HIGHER, AVERAGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS, SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60-
70+ MPH BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
30% WIND OUTLOOK COVERING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WEAK 0-1 KM SRH
AND HIGH LCLS WILL LIMIT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL, HOWEVER A BRIEF SPIN
UP CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY DUE TO LOCALIZED LAND/MARINE
INTERACTIONS. AS FOR HAIL, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL,
BUT LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FINALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER ANY
URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL ERO OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT LIMITED. THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER,
IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS, THE FRONT LIKELY NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE (LOCALLY UPPER 90S). WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY, HEAT
INDEX VALUES INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF I-85/95 AND SOUTH
OF I- 64 AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE A FEW ~105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES
MAY BE POSSIBLE, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. IN ADDITION, THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
PUT A QUICK END TO THE HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM TODAY/TONIGHT LINGERS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER FOR
MONDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS FAR
S/SE PORTIONS THE AREA, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
MUCH DRIER AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S), NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S), AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD
MAKE FOR PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
EXPAND BACK A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS) ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE NEAR/ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND IN NC WITH LOWER CHANCES OFF TO THE N/NW. TEMPERATURES STAY IN
THE LOWER 80S (UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST) ON TUESDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME LIKELY
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE PRECIPTATION-WISE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NW. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A DAY 5 15% SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN
ADDITION, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20
KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER 21Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS WITH STORMS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND UNCERTAINTIES ON
SPECIFIC TIMING AT EACH SITE. STORMS TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS LATE
IN THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. MVFR CIGS
POTENTIALLY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES BY LATER MONDAY
MORNING . BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR SE WINDS OF 15-20KT, BECOMING
NW EARLY TOMORROW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10KT IS ONGOING AS OF EARLY MORNING OBS. SEAS
ARE AROUND 2FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY/RIVERS ARE 1FT OR LESS. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, TURNING SSE BY
MID-DAY. BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAY (~15 OVER THE
RIVERS). SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY STARTING AT 21Z. DECIDED
AGAINST SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE WINDS FALL A BIT SHORT OF
CRITERIA AND SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 4FT. WINDS
OVERALL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO ~15KT LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY
INCLUDE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, WATERSPOUTS, AND SMALL HAIL. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SURGE
BACK UP NEAR 20KT THROUGH MID MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND RAN THE
ADVISORIES OUT THROUGH THE SECOND SURGE FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE, AND
BECAUSE WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. REMAINING BENIGN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OF 5-10KT TUESDAY THEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK MAY AGAIN BRING ELEVATED
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
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