583
FXUS61 KAKQ 141955
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYSIDE OF THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE FOR THE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK. A RETURN TO
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WED-THU AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES W-SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL OFF TO
OUR NW FROM WESTERN NY TO THE OH VALLEY. A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING DEW
PTS TO SURGE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS SE VA/NE NC, THOUGH
THEY ARE NOW MIXING OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREA-
WIDE. THUS FAR, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE STARTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL NC, BUT HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DESPITE AMPLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES- ML CAPE 1500-3000 J/KG, DCAPE>1000 J/KG, AND 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES ~8.5C. WHAT IS LIMITED IS LIKELY THAT WEAK RIDING
IS STILL IN PLACE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. AFTER ~5 PM, HEIGHT FALLS
ARE FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE PIEDMONT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST, SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH ~8PM. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (TO 25-35 KT), THOUGH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST 5.5C TO
~6C/KM. LATEST SPC DISCUSSION MENTIONS AN 80% CHC FOR A SVR
WATCH AS THIS OCCURS, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS, THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, MAINLY FROM ABOUT 5PM -9PM (POTENTIALLY LINGERING A FEW
HRS LONGER NEAR THE COAST). 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LWX/RNK SHOW A
WELL MIXED INVERTED V PROFILE SOUNDING, WITH STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE MAIN SEVERE MODE. A BRIEF SPIN UP
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MAINLY DUE TO LOCALIZED LAND/MARINE INTERACTIONS. AS
FOR HAIL, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL, BUT LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FINALLY, STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY SO ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED OVER URBAN
AREAS. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AM AND 5 AM, NIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND ENDING
THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IN TYPICAL FASHION
FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS, THE FRONT LIKELY STALLS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE NC
INTO EARLY MON AFTN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM TODAY/TONIGHT LINGERS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST HAS REMAINDER SIMILAR FOR
MONDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS FAR
S/SE PORTIONS THE AREA, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MUCH DRIER AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S), NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S), AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES EXPAND BACK A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES (SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS) ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR/ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NC WITH LOWER CHANCES OFF
TO THE N/NW. TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST) ON TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME LIKELY
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE PRECIPTATION-WISE AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NW. WE ARE ALSO
WATCHING FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, WITH SPC
HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A DAY 5 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT CU AND S-SW WINDS AROUND
10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE MAIN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OFF TO
THE W/SW OF THE REGION (AND ALSO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST).
PRECISE TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE FROM AROUND 22Z-03Z (LATEST
AT SBY). HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS,
PRIMARILY FROM 22Z-02Z, EXCEPT 00-04Z AT SBY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
FOR THE TAFS HAVE LIMITED TO GUSTS TO 30-35 KT FOR NOW. STORMS
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM SW TO THE N-NW BETWEEN
07-10Z AT RIC/SBY, AND A FEW HRS LATER FOR SE VA/NE NC. GUSTS
TO ~20 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN NEAR THE
COAST, AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP IN NC AND AFFECT ECG
THROUGH 18Z/MON (THOUGH CHANCES ARE 30% OR LESS).
OUTLOOK: ANY LINGERING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATER MONDAY, WITH VFR/DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NIGHT. BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY
FOR SE VA/NE NC, AND THEN ALL AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED
AM. PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST
OF THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR SE WINDS OF 15-20KT, BECOMING
NW EARLY TOMORROW.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GENERALLY THE SE-SW. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS, WITH A FEW
MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS. THE
SEABREEZE INFLUENCE ALSO HAS A FEW AREAS IN THE BAY SEEING MORE
EASTERLY WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE GENERALLY 1 FT OR LESS, WITH
SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SEEING BETWEEN 2-3 FT.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO RAMP UP SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE MARGINAL WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY
SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA IN THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS (50 KT+), ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS, AND SMALL HAIL.
THIS STORM THREAT WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AS
NEEDED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND SURGE TO 15-20 KTS. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT, THE SCA FOR THE BAY EXTENDS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO COVER THIS SECONDARY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN
THROUGH MID WEEK AS FLOW OF 5-10 KT BECOMES ONSHORE ON TUESDAY, THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA BY LATE WEEK AND COULD BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AC/NB
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