033
FXUS61 KAKQ 150536
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM EDT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND EAST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING (INCLUDING ZONES NOT IN
THE WATCH).
2) A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK. A RETURN TO
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WED-THU AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 420 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM EDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND EAST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING (INCLUDING ZONES NOT IN THE WATCH).
UPDATED TO ADD SVR TSTM WATCH THROUGH 11 PM. LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATES W-SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NW FROM WESTERN
NY TO THE OH VALLEY. A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING DEW PTS TO SURGE INTO THE
LOW-MID 70S ACROSS SE VA/NE NC, THOUGH THEY ARE NOW MIXING OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREA- WIDE. THUS FAR, WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE STARTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL NC, BUT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY DESPITE AMPLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES- ML CAPE
1500-3000 J/KG, DCAPE>1000 J/KG, AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ~8.5C.
WHAT IS LIMITED IS LIKELY THAT WEAK RIDING IS STILL IN PLACE IN
THE H7-H5 LAYER. AFTER ~5 PM, HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE PIEDMONT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST,
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH ~8PM. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (TO 25-35 KT), THOUGH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STILL VERY MARGINAL AT BEST 5.5C TO ~6C/KM.
LATEST SPC DISCUSSION MENTIONS AN 80% CHC FOR A SVR WATCH AS
THIS OCCURS, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS, THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
MAINLY FROM ABOUT 5PM -9PM (POTENTIALLY LINGERING A FEW HRS
LONGER NEAR THE COAST). 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM LWX/RNK SHOW A WELL
MIXED INVERTED V PROFILE SOUNDING, WITH STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AS THE MAIN SEVERE MODE. A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY DUE TO LOCALIZED LAND/MARINE INTERACTIONS. AS FOR HAIL,
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FINALLY, STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY SO ONLY ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED OVER URBAN AREAS. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 2
AM AND 5 AM, NIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THE SUMMER
MONTHS, THE FRONT LIKELY STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE NC INTO EARLY MON AFTN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COOLER, DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD EARLY THIS WEEK.
A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT FROM TODAY/TONIGHT LINGERS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST HAS REMAINDER SIMILAR FOR
MONDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS FAR
S/SE PORTIONS THE AREA, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MUCH DRIER AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S), NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S), AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY.
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES EXPAND BACK A BIT FURTHER N/NW ON
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES (SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS) ON TUESDAY WILL MAINLY
BE NEAR/ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NC WITH LOWER CHANCES OFF
TO THE N/NW. TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW-MID 80S (UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST) ON TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MID TO LATER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME LIKELY
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE PRECIPTATION-WISE AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NW. WE ARE ALSO
WATCHING FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, WITH SPC
HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A DAY 5 15% SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/15 TAF PERIOD. THE
STORMS HAVE COME TO AN END, BUT THERE ARE A FEW LIGHT, SPOTTY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS OF LATEST
RADAR. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS FROM THESE.
BKN-OVC SKIES PERSIST THE REST OF THE NIGHT, BECOMING SCT DURING
THE DAY TODAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT SBY
BETWEEN 08Z-10Z, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CIGS. WINDS TURN TO THE NW
LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE LATE THU/EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR SE WINDS OF 15-20KT, BECOMING
NW EARLY TOMORROW.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GENERALLY THE SE-SW. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS, WITH A FEW
MARINE OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS. THE
SEABREEZE INFLUENCE ALSO HAS A FEW AREAS IN THE BAY SEEING MORE
EASTERLY WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE GENERALLY 1 FT OR LESS, WITH
SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SEEING BETWEEN 2-3 FT.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO RAMP UP SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE MARGINAL WITH THIS
INITIAL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY
SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA IN THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS (50 KT+), ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS, AND SMALL HAIL.
THIS STORM THREAT WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AS
NEEDED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND SURGE TO 15-20 KTS. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT, THE SCA FOR THE BAY EXTENDS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO COVER THIS SECONDARY SURGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN
THROUGH MID WEEK AS FLOW OF 5-10 KT BECOMES ONSHORE ON TUESDAY, THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA BY LATE WEEK AND COULD BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC/NB
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