645
FXUS61 KAKQ 151134
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL DISCUSSION SECTIONS UPDATED. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS
WEEK.
2) HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS
LARGELY COME TO AN END, BUT A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECASTING
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND.
OVERALL LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND LESS HUMID THANKS TO DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SIMILARLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS TOMORROW. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 70S. MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DOWN NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SPREAD UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURS EVENING.
HEATING BACK UP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT EXPECTING AN OVERALL DRY DAY. THURS LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. SHOULD ALSO BE PRETTY BREEZY OUT OF THE SW
DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND IN A 15% RISK AREA
IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THURS.
RAIN COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA, OR IT MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE 00Z ECMWF, IN WHICH LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. IT'S THE ONLY MODEL SO FAR SHOWING THIS, THOUGH, AND
THE EURO ENS ONLY HAS A 20-30% PROB FOR QPF >1". AFTER THAT, THE
WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND
AROUND 90 SUN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 735 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AND
ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUD COVER. NW-N WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KTS
THIS MORNING, THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL START TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK: BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE LATE THU/EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
TIDAL RIVERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME NW WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AREA, EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE WATERS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE AROUND ~5 TO 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS AND DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE (~6 TO 8 AM
EDT), BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SCA. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE BAY 2 TO 3 FEET
(UP TO 4 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING, BRINGING A SECOND, SMALLER N-NW SURGE TONIGHT
(PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY). A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT
WIND PROBS FOR SCA CONDITIONS ONLY PEAK AROUND 15-20%. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH MID WEEK AS FLOW OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS BECOMES ONSHORE ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND COULD BRING ELEVATED WINDS, AND THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...AJB
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