112
FXUS61 KAKQ 151932
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS WEEK.
2) HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT IS SITUATED NORTH OF THE
AREA AND IS PROGGED TO MOVED THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ARE QUITE PLEASANT IN COMPARISON TO SOME OF THE
HOTTER DAYS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS SITTING
COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCING COLD
FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER SUBTLE PUSH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR TONIGHT,
ANOTHER SIMILARLY PLEASANT DAY IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS PEAKING BETWEEN 80-85F. LOWER HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TUESDAY WILL SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS DOWN NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SPREAD UP THE COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH QPF VALUES REMAINING BELOW 0.10" FOR SE VA AND NE NC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THU-FRI. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG A FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FORECAST TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. LUCKILY, DEW POINTS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S (MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST), SO
THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY FOR ONE LAST DAY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST, BUT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SW. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATE WITH THE LOW. A BREEZY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AS OF
NOW, SPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL THE LOSS OF THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED, BUT THE
THREAT COULD ALSO EXTEND INTO FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT OVER THE AREA, WHILE
OTHERS SUGGEST IT MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED PENDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
FRONT. THE SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, WHILE
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS WEAKER LOW THAT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT THESE ARE DEFINITELY ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN TERMS OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FORECAST
WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT EXPECT SOME RAINFALL,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE WEEK. AFTER THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. NW-N WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK: BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE
THU/EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO START TO DIMINISH, WITH N/NW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT. WAVES WERE GENERALLY 1-2 FT IN THE CHES BAY WITH SEAS
OF 3-4 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-10
KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING, BRINGING A SMALL N SURGE TONIGHT (PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN CHES BAY). A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT WIND PROBS FOR SCA
CONDITIONS ONLY PEAK AROUND 5%. AS SUCH, SCAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS FLOW OF 5-12
KT BECOMES ONSHORE ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SURGE WITH PROBS OF 50-70% FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18+ KT. ELEVATED WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...RMM/NB
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