457
FXUS61 KAKQ 300751
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
351 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY, A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, PEAKING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATER NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE
AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN
LATER NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST
OF THE CWA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY COOL AND IN THE
LOWER 80S, WITH DEW POINTS A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS (UPPER 60S). A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, MAINLY W OF I-95, WHERE A SUBTLE
MOISTURE AXIS/THETA-E RIDGE IS LOCATED. WARMING TREND BEGINS
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S, EXCEPT AT
THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS MID 80S.
ENSEMBLES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AT BUILDING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEY TUESDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING E-
NE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THU-FRI, AND SLOWLY
BREAKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE THERE
REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECISE LOCATION, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE
LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF LONGEST DURATION
SINCE JULY 2012. GIVEN A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR H5 HEIGHTS >595 DM AND
850 MB TEMPS OF 21-23C, HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 F ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH,
DO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT QUITE A BIT INLAND. THIS COULD PUT A
CAP ON THE HIGHER- END HEAT INDEX SCENARIOS, BUT WE ARE STILL LIKELY
TO BE NEAR EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. THE WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO TEND TO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY BRINGING STEADY OR FALLING LATE DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER, THESE SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS, AND SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER-RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
HONE IN ON 70S DEW POINTS DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SE VA AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES IN THESE
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR, OR EVEN HIGHER, THAN INLAND
LOCATIONS. REGARDLESS, THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDICES OF 105-
110 F FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH POCKETS
OF 110+ POSSIBLE). THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT THE NORTHERN AREAS OF
THE CWA WILL PROBABLY BE THE HOTTEST THU-FRI, AND THE SOUTHERN AREAS
PEAK FRI-SAT. REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES, IT REMAINS A BIT
TOO EARLY TO REFINE DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR INLAND/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY (WHILE S/SE AREAS WILL TEND TO SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES
AT OR BELOW 100F). CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH IN EVENTUALLY NEEDING
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES FOR AT LEAST THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
(POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY). HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AT THIS POINT AFTER COLLABORATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. ALSO CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THE DEW POINT/APPARENT T
FORECAST GIVEN MOST CASES WITH 100+ TEMPS TEND TO SEE DEW POINTS
BRIEFLY FALL AT PEAK HEATING, ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND. EITHER
WAY, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR
A PERIOD OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE ONLY REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS PATTERN
WOULD BE WITH SEABREEZE-INITITED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. THESE
LARGE HEAT DOMES ALSO BRING A RISK OF "RING OF FIRE" TYPE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES, I.E., THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, WITH THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
VA/EASTERN KY, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 15-30% POPS BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SEABREEZE CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALL BE BETTER RESOLVED AS WE GET CLOSER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN LATE FRIDAY/SAT, WITH REINFORCING TROUGHING/SHORTWAVES
GRADUALLY TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE W-NW LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IT LOOKS LIKE A SLOW PROCESS, SO TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF THE PULSE VARIETY, PLUS POSSIBLY UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE NW, WOULD BE ON THE
TABLE.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF
IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS INLAND, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RIC AROUND
SUNRISE. ECG MAY ALSO SEE IFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT COVERAGE IS LOW SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO
TEMPO GROUPS AT RIC AND ECG. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SE OR E 5-10 KT ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY STARTING TONIGHT.
- MODERATE RIP RISK FOR VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK TODAY, LOW
NORTHERN AREAS.
E-NE WINDS WINDS AVERAGE ~10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS
ARE A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (3-4 FT),
WITH 2-3 FT OR LESS TO THE NORTH. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
E-SE THIS AFTN, AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AND GENERALLY
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. S-SW WINDS WILL
SHOW SOME DIURNAL BACKING TO SSE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING EACH
DAY, AVERAGING BETWEEN 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEARSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED WITH THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES AROUND
3 FT, AND LOW NORTH WITH NEARSHORE WAVES 2-3 FT OR LESS. BY
WEDNESDAY, A LOW RIP RISK RETURNS FOR ALL BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: WED 7/1 THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 102/1945 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002
- ORF: 100/1901 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997
- SBY: 98/2012 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919
- ECG: 101/2012 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997
RECORD HIGH MINS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ064-075>078-085-517>522.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-064-
509>511.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...ERI/LKB
CLIMATE...LKB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page