647
FXUS61 KAKQ 300805
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
405 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR NW
COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 106 ON WEDNESDAY.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST CENTRAL VA INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN NECK AND THE FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE (EXCLUDING THE MD
BEACHES).
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY,
PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY, A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY,
PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE 00Z/30 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES STARTING TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN BY
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE, NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF
LONGEST DURATION SINCE JULY 2012.
FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE SE AND ALLOW MUCH WARMER AND HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
INLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE
ALONG THE COAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. BY WEDNESDAY,
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. TEMPERATURES INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. WHILE
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS THE SE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS ARE FORECASTED TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE COAST AND
SE BUT, WILL REMAIN STEADY WEST OF I-95. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME AREAS IN
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IN THE FAR NW FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING AS SOME PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES
WILL POTENTIALLY REACH HEAT INDICES OF 105+.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ENSEMBLES SHOW A 594DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND 850 TEMPS OF 21-24C, CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SOME AREAS COULD
SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100F, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. IF TEMPERATURES REACH THIS HIGH, EXPECT THE DEW POINTS TO
MIX OUT INLAND. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUT A CAP ON THE HIGHER- END
HEAT INDEX SCENARIOS, HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE
TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE BAY AND SE THERE COULD LIKELY BE SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS BUT HIGHER DEWS. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO
SIMILAR HEAT INDICES. WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS A EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL VA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN NECK AND THE FOR
THE MD EASTERN SHORE (EXCLUDING THE MD BEACHES) THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY
REACHING 110+. WILL NOTE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF 110+ HEAT INDICES
ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE IS FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MIXING ON THURSDAY DECIDED TO ADD THEM IN THE WATCH. ELSEWHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 ARE LOW THURSDAY, BUT
INCREASE FRIDAY-SAT. THEREFORE, THESE AREA MAYBE PUT IN A WATCH
LATER IN TIME. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
DOWN. AS THIS OCCURS THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MIXING OCCURING BUT HEAT INDICES ARE STILL
LIKELY TO BE 105+ WITH ISOLATED AREAS AT OR ABOVE 110.
THE ONLY REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS PATTERN
WOULD BE WITH SEABREEZE-INITITED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. THESE
LARGE HEAT DOMES ALSO BRING A RISK OF "RING OF FIRE" TYPE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES, I.E., THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, WITH THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
VA/EASTERN KY, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH 15-30% POPS BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SEABREEZE CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. THIS WILL ALL BE BETTER RESOLVED AS WE GET CLOSER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO TRULY BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY, AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES GRADUALLY TURN THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE W-NW LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SLOW PROCESS, SO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF THE PULSE VARIETY,
PLUS POSSIBLY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE NW,
WOULD BE ON THE TABLE..
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF
IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS INLAND, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RIC AROUND
SUNRISE. ECG MAY ALSO SEE IFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT COVERAGE IS LOW SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO
TEMPO GROUPS AT RIC AND ECG. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SE OR E 5-10 KT ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY STARTING TONIGHT.
- MODERATE RIP RISK FOR VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK TODAY, LOW
NORTHERN AREAS.
E-NE WINDS WINDS AVERAGE ~10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS
ARE A BIT ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (3-4 FT),
WITH 2-3 FT OR LESS TO THE NORTH. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
E-SE THIS AFTN, AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AND GENERALLY
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. S-SW WINDS WILL
SHOW SOME DIURNAL BACKING TO SSE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING EACH
DAY, AVERAGING BETWEEN 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEARSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED WITH THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES AROUND
3 FT, AND LOW NORTH WITH NEARSHORE WAVES 2-3 FT OR LESS. BY
WEDNESDAY, A LOW RIP RISK RETURNS FOR ALL BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: WED 7/1 THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 102/1945 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002
- ORF: 100/1901 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997
- SBY: 98/2012 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919
- ECG: 101/2012 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997
RECORD HIGH MINS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ064-075>078-085-517>522.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-064-
509>511.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/SW
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...ERI/LKB
CLIMATE...LKB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page