290
FXUS61 KAKQ 010729
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 06Z/01 TAF
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT. EXTREME HEAT WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODERATE RIP RISK FOR NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR HEAT WAVE BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAJOR HEAT WAVE BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF
INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR ONE MORE DAY OF
PLEASANT TEMPS WITH TEMPS AS OF 250 PM RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AROUND 90F. MEANWHILE, DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY BREAKING DOWN DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH THAT THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF LONGEST DURATION SINCE JULY 2012.
THE HEAT WAVE BEGINS WED WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 90S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. DEW POINTS ARE FORECASTED
TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE COAST AND SE, BUT WILL REMAIN STEADY WEST OF I-
95. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES (WHAT TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE) UP TO
AROUND 105-106F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER 100S UP TO THE I-
95 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT. WILL NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING 105F HEAT INDICES WAS TOO LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND THE RICHMOND METRO TO INCLUDE THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE QUITE HOT REGARDLESS.
EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THU THROUGH SAT WITH ENSEMBLES
CONTINUING TO SHOW A 594DM (POTENTIALLY EVEN STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND 850 TEMPS OF 21-25C. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100F,
ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT. IN FACT, A LOCAL TOOL CALCULATING MAX TEMP
FROM THICKNESS DEPICTS UP TO 102-103F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA.
THIS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE VERY
HIGH TEMPS FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE NBM. NEVERTHELESS,
STILL THINK THE NBM IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR TEMPS (FRI AND SAT). AS
SUCH, HAVE HIGHS AROUND 100F NW TO THE LOW-MID 90S SE THU AND 98-
102F FOR MOST FRI AND SAT. WILL NOTE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH
103F FRI (MOST LIKELY IN THE NW PIEDMONT IF IT OCCURS). THESE TEMPS
(IF REALIZED) WOULD POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR UP TO
THREE DAYS IN A ROW (THU-SAT). ADDITIONALLY, IF TEMPS REACH THIS
HIGH, EXPECT THE DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INLAND. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY PUT A CAP ON THE HIGHER-END HEAT INDEX SCENARIOS,
HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA THU-SAT WITH WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F+ LIKELY. ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES ADJACENT
TO THE BAY AND SE, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A SEABREEZE DUE TO THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS BUT HIGHER DEWS, AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SIMILAR HEAT
INDICES. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT WET BULB GLOBE TEMPS (WBGT) AROUND 90F
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-460 ON THU AND UP TO 90-91F ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FRI AND SAT. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH TEMPS, HEAT
INDICES, THE DURATION OF THE HEATWAVE, AND THE INCREASE IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE ALL FACTORED IN TO THE
DECISION TO EXPAND THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING THU GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-460
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES AND THE RICHMOND METRO) AND EXPANDS SOUTH
TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA (EXCLUDING MECKLENBURG, THE VA
EASTERN SHORE, THE MD BEACHES, AND NE NC). ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION
WAS GIVEN TO EXTENDING THE WATCH THROUGH SAT, HOWEVER, AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
THIS UPDATE AND REEVALUATE TOMORROW. NEVERTHELESS, ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY ON SAT (HIGH CONFIDENCE) AND SUN (MODERATE
CONFIDENCE). ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE
WATCHES EACH DAY FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE AREA).
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE ONLY REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS PATTERN
WOULD BE WITH SEABREEZE-INITITED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OR
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE LEE TROUGH. THESE LARGE HEAT DOMES ALSO
BRING A RISK OF "RING OF FIRE" TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES, I.E.,
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN VA/EASTERN KY,
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. AS SUCH, RAIN CHANCES ARE
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE (15-40% POPS) BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES SUN (35-50% POPS) AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. ANY CONVECTION ON EITHER DAY COULD AFFECT
TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR SUBSEQUENT DAYS. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS
AND HEAT INDICES IS LOWER ON SUN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION ON SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AS A NEW RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN NW FLOW WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. FOR NOW, HAVE 50-60% POPS MON AND
35-55% POPS TUE.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1253 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. SE-S WINDS AT ~5 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BECOMING S-SW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT SBY
BY MID- MORNING TOMORROW. FEW AFTN CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY STARTING TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE, BUT IS STILL RIDGING
INTO SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA. WINDS ARE NOW MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH,
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE SFC HIGH). SEAS ARE 2-3 FT, AND WAVES IN THE
BAY ~1-2 FT. LATER TODAY, THE SFC LOW ACROSS CANADA SHIFTS EAST,
LEADING TO A MODEST TIGHTENING UP OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN S-SE WINDS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL BACKING TO SSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE BAY FOR A FEW HRS.
WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE BAY, HAVE OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE ANY SCAS AS IT WILL BE MARGINAL AND OF SHORT-
DURATION. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BRIEFLY BUILD UP TO 2-3 FT THIS
EVENING, BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 1-2 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT (BUT MAY
BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFF THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASED S-SE FLOW. A SIMILAR PATTERN PREVAILS THU-FRI, BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SO SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SEAS ONLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT
OR LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: DECIDED TO ADD THE NORTHERN BEACHES TO A MODERATE
RIP RISK TODAY AS WINDS BECOME S-SE AND INCREASE (IN ADDITION
TO THE MODERATE FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK NC), THOUGH BOTH WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 2-3 FT. BY THURSDAY, A
LOW RIP RISK RETURNS FOR ALL BEACHES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: WED 7/1 THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 102/1945 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002
- ORF: 100/1901 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997
- SBY: 98/2012 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919
- ECG: 101/2012 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997
RECORD HIGH MINS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-081>086-
090-509>523.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-509>511.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087>089-092-097>100-524-525-
528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...LKB/NB
CLIMATE...LKB
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