366
FXUS61 KAKQ 011726
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY TO INCLUDE THE RICHMOND
METRO AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK.
UPDATED EQUIPMENT SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING TODAY,
PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY BEGINNING TODAY,
PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
THE 12Z CAMS AND HREF HAVE TRENDED HOTTER FOR TODAY. AS SUCH,
RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WHICH PUSHES HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA A BIT FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z HREF PROBS FOR
HEAT INDICES OF 105F+ FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCREASED TO 60-75%
(LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR THE RICHMOND METRO AS WELL INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z/01 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES STARTING TODAY AND THEN BREAKING
DOWN BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE,
NEVERTHELESS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH THAT THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF LONGEST DURATION SINCE JULY 2012.
TODAY WILL BE FIRST DAY OF THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL
ALLOWING FOR STRONG DIURNAL HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES INLAND TO RISE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. WHILE CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE SE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. DEW
POINTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE COAST AND SE
BUT, WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW 70S WEST OF I-95. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOME AREAS
APPROACHING 105F+. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE AREAS ARE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW A 594DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND 850 TEMPS OF 21-24C, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SOME
AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100F, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. IF TEMPERATURES REACH THIS HIGH, EXPECT THE DEW
POINTS TO MIX OUT INLAND. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUT A CAP ON THE
HIGHER- END HEAT INDEX SCENARIOS, HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO BE CLOSE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE BAY AND SE, THERE COULD LIKELY BE SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS BUT HIGHER DEWS. THIS WILL STILL
LEAD TO SIMILAR HEAT INDICES. AT THIS TIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INDICES NEARING OR
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 110F. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY MIXING OUT AND CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO BE BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT BOTH THE VA EASTERN SHORE
AND MECKLENBURG COUNTY COULD POTENTIALLY NEAR 110 HEAT INDEX FRIDAY
AND DECIDED TO ADD THEM TO THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR FRIDAY. WILL
ALSO NOTE, THAT FRIDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD HEAT HEADLINES AS HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY BE 105-110F+.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DO NOT FIRE TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST AS HIGH AS FRIDAY ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F+. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THE HEAT WATCH WILL NOT BE EXPANDED THROUGH
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
WILL ALSO MAKE A QUICK NOTE ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S, WITH
URBAN AREAS 75-80, ALLOWING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY, AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
GRADUALLY TURN THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE W-NW LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SLOW PROCESS, SO TEMPERATURES
LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY INTO BUT WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF THE PULSE VARIETY,
PLUS POSSIBLY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE NW,
WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. WITH THESE DAILY CHANCES IN THUNDERSTORMS IT
COULD PUT A CAP ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BOTH OF THESE DAYS TEMPS HAVE A SOLID CHANCE OF REACHING POTENTIAL
HEAT HEADLINES BUT WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IT COULD MAKE ISSUING
HEAT HEADLINES DIFFICULT AS TIME APPROACHES. OTHERWISE, BY NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND S-SW WINDS PREVAILING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT SBY, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 6-12 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY STARTING TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE, BUT IS STILL RIDGING
INTO SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA. WINDS ARE NOW MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH,
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS (FARTHER
REMOVED FROM THE SFC HIGH). SEAS ARE 2-3 FT, AND WAVES IN THE
BAY ~1-2 FT. LATER TODAY, THE SFC LOW ACROSS CANADA SHIFTS EAST,
LEADING TO A MODEST TIGHTENING UP OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN S-SE WINDS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL BACKING TO SSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS IN THE BAY FOR A FEW HRS.
WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE LIKELY IN THE BAY, HAVE OPTED
NOT TO ISSUE ANY SCAS AS IT WILL BE MARGINAL AND OF SHORT-
DURATION. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BRIEFLY BUILD UP TO 2-3 FT THIS
EVENING, BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 1-2 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT (BUT MAY
BRIEFLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFF THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASED S-SE FLOW. A SIMILAR PATTERN PREVAILS THU-FRI, BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SO SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SEAS ONLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT
OR LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: DECIDED TO ADD THE NORTHERN BEACHES TO A MODERATE
RIP RISK TODAY AS WINDS BECOME S-SE AND INCREASE (IN ADDITION
TO THE MODERATE FOR VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK NC), THOUGH BOTH WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH NEARSHORE SEAS 2-3 FT. BY THURSDAY, A
LOW RIP RISK RETURNS FOR ALL BEACHES AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: WED 7/1 THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 102/1945 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002
- ORF: 100/1901 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997
- SBY: 98/2012 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919
- ECG: 101/2012 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997
RECORD HIGH MINS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-081>086-
090-509>523.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064-067>069-075-076-509>517-519-521-522.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087>089-092-097>100-524-525-
528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/RMM
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...LKB/NB
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
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