477
FXUS61 KAKQ 020515
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-460. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA (EXCLUDING THE MD
BEACHES AND CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS) WITH EXTREME HEAT WATCHES IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS ON FRIDAY.
UPDATED EQUIPMENT SECTION AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY
2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
2) STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAJOR HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG (596DM) RIDGE CENTERED OVER E KY,
WV, NE TN, NW NC, AND W VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE
MID 90S NW TO THE MID-UPPER 80S SE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S (AS OF 230 PM). HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 105-106F ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TO CHESTERFIELD COUNTY WITH LOWER VALUES EAST OF I-95.
EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S NW TO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND
105-106F SPREADING EAST TOWARDS THE RICHMOND METRO AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT REGARDING
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SAT.
AT THIS POINT IT'S NOT A MATTER OF IF IT IS GOING TO GET HOT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BUT A MATTER OF FINE-TUNING THE EXACT TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY HIGH THAT
THIS SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND OF LONGEST DURATION HEATWAVE SINCE JULY 2012.
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARRIVE TOMORROW INTO SAT (POTENTIALLY LASTING
INTO SUN) WITH VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE 100F (ESPECIALLY ON FRI AND SAT). IN FACT, A
LOCAL TOOL CALCULATING MAX TEMP FROM THICKNESS DEPICTS UP TO 101-
102F ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA FRI AND SAT. THIS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AND LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE VERY HIGH TEMPS
FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE NBM. NEVERTHELESS, STILL THINK THE
NBM IS A BIT TOO HIGH FOR TEMPS (FRI AND SAT). AS SUCH, HAVE HIGHS
AROUND 99-101F ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH 90S SE THU AND 99-
102F FOR MOST FRI AND SAT. WILL NOTE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH
103F+ FRI. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPS INCREASES A BIT SAT AND EVEN
MORE FOR SUN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT OCCUR, HIGHS COULD REACH ABOVE 100F SAT AND EVEN SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 80F IN URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE CHES BAY/ EASTERN SHORE THU AND FRI NIGHTS,
RESULTING IN LITTLE RELIEF IN THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
FORECASTED TEMPS, MULTIPLE DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE AT RISK OF
BEING BROKEN (MAINLY THU- SAT). SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
ADDITIONALLY, IF TEMPS REACH THIS HIGH, DEW POINTS COULD MIX OUT
(MORE THAN MOST MODELS SHOW) INLAND. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY PUT A
CAP ON THE HIGHER-END HEAT INDEX SCENARIOS. REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F+ ARE LIKELY FROM THU-SAT (POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO SUN). HOWEVER, NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 12Z
MET) SHOW DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE MID 70S INTO FRI
AFTERNOON. IF DEW POINTS TREND HIGHER THAN FRI WOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO REACH HEAT INDICES OF 110F+ AREA-WIDE. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT WET
BULB GLOBE TEMPS (WBGT) AROUND 90F ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US-460 ON THU AND UP TO 90-91F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRI
(89-90F SAT). THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH TEMPS, HEAT INDICES, THE
DURATION OF THE HEATWAVE, AND THE INCREASE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DUE
TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE ALL FACTORED IN TO THE WARNING/WATCH
DECISIONS. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THU AND
FRI FROM PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY EASTWARD TO SUSSEX COUNTY AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
REACHING HEAT INDICES AROUND 110F (OR HIGHER) THU AND FRI. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA (EXCLUDING THE MD BEACHES AND CURRITUCK OUTER
BANKS) HAVE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THU AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES FOR
FRI. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO EXTENDING THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS THROUGH SAT, HOWEVER, AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS UPDATE GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTION.
NEVERTHELESS, ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED ON SAT
(HIGH CONFIDENCE) AND MAY BE NEEDED ON SUN (MODERATE
CONFIDENCE). FOR THE MD BEACHES AND CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS, HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 100F THU BUT INCREASE TO
105-109F FRI AND PERHAPS INTO SAT. AS SUCH, THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES ON FRI AND PERHAPS SAT BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RRFS AND FV3 SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LEE TROUGH CONVECTION LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPS/DEW POINTS, ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW,
SPC HAS ONLY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRI GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTION (~15% POPS). HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS
TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE PIEDMONT. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARRIVES LATE
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (30-45% POPS). CONFIDENCE DECREASES FARTHER
SOUTH. THE EURO, GFS, AND 12KM NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING SAT. IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT,
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS (ESPECIALLY IF
AN MCS FORMS). AS SUCH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEVERE
PROBS MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUN INTO MON WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS
A NEW RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. IT IS NOT
UNCOMMON FOR HEATWAVES TO END WITH SEVERE WEATHER. AS SUCH, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW, POPS INCREASE TO 40-50% SUN, 50-
60% MON, 45-60% TUE, AND 25-45% WED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT
WEEK.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AS A NEW RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE LOCAL AREA IN NW FLOW WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS LOW FROM MON ONWARDS. IF
CONVECTION DOES OCCUR, TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS THE NBM
SHOWS, PARTICULARLY MON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. S AND SW 5-10 KT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE S-SW AT 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A
FEW AREAS OF 15-20 KTS ARE BEING MEASURED IN THE NORTHERN WATERS,
THOUGH THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT, AND WAVES IN THE BAY
~1-2 FT. THIS REGIME OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. S-SW WINDS WILL SHOW SOME DIURNAL BACKING TO
SSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, THERE MAY BE SOME CHANNELING EFFECTS WITHIN THE BAY AND
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, INCREASING WINDS TO 10-15 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 18-20 KTS MAINLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THIS EVENING, HAVE OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY SCAS FOR THE BAY BECAUSE IT IS SO MARGINAL AND SHORT-
DURATION. THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL RELAX THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SO WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STAY BELOW SCA-CRITERIA. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2
FT, AND SEAS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE 2-3 FT FOR
THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED WITH THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL
BEACHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH THE MENTION OF S-N
LONGSHORE CURRENTS DUE TO WIND DIRECTION (PARALLEL TO THE SHORE) AND
SPEED. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A LOW RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES
STARTING TOMORROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THOUGH WAVE
PERIODS WILL BE 7-9 SECONDS, WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND
WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE SHORE, AND SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 2-3
FT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LONGSHORE CURRENT FOR AT LEAST
TOMORROW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: WED 7/1 THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 102/1945 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002
- ORF: 100/1901 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997
- SBY: 98/2012 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919
- ECG: 101/2012 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997
RECORD HIGH MINS LATER THIS WEEK:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-
088>090-509>523.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ065-066-079-087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ065-066-079-087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...HET/RHR
MARINE...LKB/NB
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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