724
FXUS61 KAKQ 021855
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SE VA
INCLUDING TIDEWATER AS HEAT INDICES OF 110 OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATED EQUIPMENT SECTION AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAJOR HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DURATION
SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAJOR HEAT WAVE CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY BEFORE STARTING
TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN HIGH THAT THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR
THE LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF LONGEST
DURATION SINCE JULY 2012.
TODAY WILL BE FIRST DAY OF THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WHERE
TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY PEAK IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS IS
DUE TO THE 594DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STANDING FIRM OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND 21-24C 850MB TEMPS. AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL KEEPING THE AREA DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OCCURING UNDER A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (DP UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES OF 105-110+F. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAT INDICES OF
110+ ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF US-460 AND MD EASTERN SHORE (EXCLUDING
THE MD BEACHES) WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY. WILL NOTE THAT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN 110F+ IS ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH HIGHER DP
ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE THERE IS THE QUESTION OF MIXING. IF DEW
POINTS MIX OUT ENOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH TIPPLE
DIGITS, HOWEVER, THE HEAT INDICES COULD FALL SHY OF 110. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURES REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE DP ARE LIKELY TO MIX OUT.
ELSEWHERE, A MIX OF HIGH DP AND HIGH TEMPS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
OF 105+ AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WILL NOT THAT THE MD
BEACHES COULD POTENTIALLY BE ADDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT THEM AND
THE NC BEACHES MAYBE SHY OF 105 HEAT INDEX. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE
A HOT AND HUMID DAY.
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS THE RIDGE IS AT
ITS FULL STRENGTH AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT
OVER THE AREA. THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED
IN PLACE. FRIDAY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA COULD SEE HEAT INDICES OF 100 OR GREATER ESPECIALLY ADJACENT
TO BAY. A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF US-460 AND MD
EASTERN SHORE (EXCLUDING THE MD BEACHES) WERE ALREADY IN A WARNING,
BUT, DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE THERE HAS BEEN HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TO NOW UPGRADE PORTIONS OF SE VA INCLUDING
TIDEWATER FROM A WATCH TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AS HEAT INDICES
OF GREATER 110 ARE NOW EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO LEAVE GREENSVILLE
COUNTY AND WEST, NE NC, AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE IN A WATCH FOR NOW
BECAUSE THEY MAY NOT REACH HEAT INDICES OF 110 OR GREATER. HOWEVER,
IT LOOKS TO BE SOLID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH INDICES OF
105+.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DO NOT FIRE TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST AS HIGH AS FRIDAY ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F+ WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
110+ ADJACENT TO THE BAY AND ALONG THE SE COAST. WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS THE HEAT WATCH WILL NOT BE EXPANDED
THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. THE HEAT WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE ITS
POTENTIAL LAST STAND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING
UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. BUT, JUST LIKE SATURDAY THERE IS THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER, SHOWERS, AND STORMS.
WILL ALSO MAKE A QUICK NOTE ABOUT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S, WITH
URBAN AREAS 75-80, ALLOWING FOR LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALONG WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN.
BY FRIDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FAR NW AND DOWN INTO THE RIC METRO. LATEST 00Z CAMS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. SOME ARE OVERDOING
CONVECTION WHILE SOME HAVE NONE AT ALL. UNDER A VERY HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE NW AND THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO RIDE THEIR OUTFLOW
TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THESE WILL BE YOUR NORMAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND WILL BE VERY BRIEF BUT COULD POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS
DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 1500J/KG. WILL NOTE
THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND COULD ALSO
HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH AS THE NW. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE THE NEXT TRUE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT ON CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PUSHING SOUTH. THESE STORMS COULD
POSE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NW AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. AS THIS OCCURS THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND S-SW WINDS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-10
KTS, THEN WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT ANY TERMINAL
THAT SEES ANY OF THIS CONVECTION.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, S-SW WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, BUT WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SOME DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (MAINLY S-SW IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING S-SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING). ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE ONLY
THING THAT WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF HIGHER WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET, AND SEAS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
DROP OFF TO 1 TO 2 FEET TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKENDS
NEARSHORE WAVES DROP TO ~2FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-509>523.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ065-066-079-
087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ065-066-079-087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJB/LKB
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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