307
FXUS61 KAKQ 041833
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS INTRODUCED FOR THE NORTHERN NECK
AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. PEAK
HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES.
2) SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE RICHMOND METRO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT 5) SEVERE STORM RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL RISK
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED 110
DEGREES.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG ~594 DM RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY HOT WX IN PLACE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
DON'T EXPECT THESE STORMS TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE PEAK HEAT
INDICES TODAY AS STRONG HEATING OF AN ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS (DEW
POINTS THIS MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES TO QUICKLY SURGE ONCE THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 108+ DEG F
BY 11 AM, WELL BEFORE ANY STORMS WOULD FORM. THE CORE OF THE
HEAT (AND THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES) WILL BE SIMILARLY PLACED TO
YESTERDAY, GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL VA EASTWARD INTO THE TIDEWATER
AND CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S,
YIELDING HEAT INDICES OF 110-114 F. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
REMAIN UNCHANGED AND ARE IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA, MINUS THE
NC AND MD BEACHES WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IF
STORMS/OUTFLOW PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WOULD OCCUR. THEREFORE,
ALL HEADLINES ARE PROGGED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BREAK DOWN FURTHER SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS, WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES,
ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 90S RANGE, POTENTIALLY NEARING 100 F IN THE URBAN
RICHMOND CORRIDOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL TEND TO FALL SHY OF 110 F
SO DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HOWEVER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO PROVIDE RELIEF BY THE
EVENING. A FEW DEGREES COOLER AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS "ONLY" IN
THE LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE IN NE NC BUT
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD 105+ HEAT INDICES AND ADVISORIES FOR OUR VA
AND MD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE RICHMOND METRO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT 5) SEVERE STORM RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN TODAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING/ASCENT TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE FAVORED TO
INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EAST OR NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, INCLUDING
(LIKELY) THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THERE REMAINS LINGERING
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND HOW EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE VARIED SOLUTIONS AMONG THE NEAR- TERM
CAMS. REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS, VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY STORM TO UTILIZE WITH WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STEEP (> 7 C/KM), SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST/INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. THE DEGREE OF THE WIND THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
POTENTIAL CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.
SHOULD A ROBUST COLD POOL DEVELOP, SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ON THE TABLE GIVEN A VERY FAVORABLE NEAR-
SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL RATES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
HIGHER-END SEVERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD BE NORTH AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE RICHMOND METRO, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NECK AND INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS WHERE
AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, DRIVEN BY A 45% WIND PROBABILITY. WHILE
COVERAGE WILL BE TEND LOWER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT (WHERE SLIGHT
AND MARGINAL RISKS ARE DELINEATED), THE AFOREMENTIONED
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WX AREAWIDE. UNFORTUNATELY,
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTERFERE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING FESTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY
AND USERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER TODAY,
HAVE BACKUP PLANS IN PLACE, AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS. AS IS TYPICAL IN ANY SUMMER STORM, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN STORMS TODAY- TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORMS THREATS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE
N SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH BEYOND MONDAY, WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW TURNING QUASI-ZONAL. THIS PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE MIDST OF SURFACE TROUGHING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY AND INTO TOMORROW. SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START OFF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING DURING
PEAK HEATING. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, TSTM CHANCES INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF RIC-SBY LINE. GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS, STRONG- SEVERE GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
AND VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
(30-40% CHANCE) IS AFTER 20Z AT RIC AND AFTER 22Z AT SBY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH PROB30 GROUPS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR PHF, ORF, AND ECG. WINDS AVG 5-10 KT OUT OF S-SW.
HAZE MAY BRIEFLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO 5SM, ESPECIALLY AT PHF.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~5 KT (~10 KT OFFSHORE)
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE S/SW. SOME DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (MAINLY S-SW
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING S-SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED). THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE ~2 FT WITH ~1 FT WAVES THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE ONLY THING THAT
WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES, WITH STRONG TSTM WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SMWS. A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
SALISBURY, MD (SBY) SET A NEW RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY (7/3) OF
101, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 98 FROM 1954. A NEW RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMP OF 77 WAS ALSO SET, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 76
FROM 2014.
NORFOLK, VA (ORF) TIED THE RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY (7/3) OF 99,
WHICH WAS SET IN 1954.
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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