682
FXUS61 KAKQ 050049
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
849 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP TO THE
NORTHERN NECK.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE SUNDAY (DAY 2) MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WAS EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY WEST AND SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
2) SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE RICHMOND METRO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT 5) SEVERE STORM RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIALLY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 110+ DEGREES F ARE BEING
OBSERVED AREA-WIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN APPROACHING OR
EXCEED 115 F. AIR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
ARE IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA, MINUS THE NC AND MD BEACHES
WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. STORMS/OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PROVIDE SOME WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND BREAK DOWN FURTHER SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS, WE ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES,
ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPPER 90S RANGE, POTENTIALLY NEARING 100 F IN THE URBAN
RICHMOND CORRIDOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL TEND TO FALL SHY OF 110 F,
BUT WILL BE SOLIDLY IN HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY (105+) FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8
PM FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA MINUS THE MD BEACHES, LOWER VA
EASTERN SHORE, AND NC BEACHES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO
PROVIDE RELIEF BY THE EVENING. A FEW DEGREES COOLER AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE IN NE NC BUT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD 105+ HEAT INDICES
AND ADVISORIES FOR OUR VA AND MD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM THE RICHMOND METRO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE. AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT 5) SEVERE STORM RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THESE AREAS WITH A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
JUST ENOUGH FORCING/ASCENT TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE FAVORED TO INITIATE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OR
NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, INCLUDING (LIKELY) THROUGH
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THERE REMAINS LINGERING QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE
AND HOW EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL EVOLVE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
VARIED SOLUTIONS AMONG THE NEAR-TERM CAMS. REGARDLESS OF THE
SPECIFICS, VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR ANY STORM TO
UTILIZE WITH WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000-5000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNUSUALLY STEEP (> 7 C/KM), SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST/INTENSE UPDRAFTS. THE DEGREE OF THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH AND COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD A ROBUST COLD POOL DEVELOP,
SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ON THE TABLE GIVEN A VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR- SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DCAPE
CURRENTLY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL RATES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME HIGHER-END SEVERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD BE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE RICHMOND METRO, ESPECIALLY ON THE
NORTHERN NECK AND INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS WHERE AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, DRIVEN BY A 45% WIND PROBABILITY. WHILE COVERAGE
WILL BE TEND LOWER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT (WHERE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL
RISKS ARE DELINEATED), THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE WX AREAWIDE. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERFERE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING FESTIVITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY AND USERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
EVOLVING WEATHER TODAY, HAVE BACKUP PLANS IN PLACE, AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS. AS IS TYPICAL IN ANY SUMMER
STORM, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN STORMS
TODAY- TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY STORMS THREATS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE N SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH BEYOND MONDAY, WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW TURNING QUASI-ZONAL. THIS PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE MIDST OF SURFACE TROUGHING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW. MAY
SEE A BRIEF STORM AT RIC IN THE NEXT HOUR AND AT SBY BETWEEN 01
AND 03Z THIS EVENING AND WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE WITH TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR PHF, ORF, AND ECG. WINDS AVG 5-10 KT OUT OF S-SW.
HAZE MAY RESTRICT VSBYS TO 5SM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~5 KT (~10 KT OFFSHORE)
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE S/SW. SOME DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
VARIABILITY IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (MAINLY S-SW
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING S-SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED). THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE ~2 FT WITH ~1 FT WAVES THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE ONLY THING THAT
WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES, WITH STRONG TSTM WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SMWS. A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
RICHMOND, VA (RIC) TIED THE RECORD FOR TODAY (7/4) AT 100, LAST
SET IN 2002.
SALISBURY, MD (SBY) SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TODAY (7/4) OF 102,
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 100 FROM 1919.
NORFOLK, VA (ORF) SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TODAY (7/4) OF 100,
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 1879.
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/MRD
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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