170
FXUS61 KAKQ 051045
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ADDED FOR MONDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS, HEAT INDICES PEAK
AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS, HEAT INDICES
PEAK AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND OUTFLOW HAS COOLED TEMPS INTO THE 70S
WITH DEW POINTS IN MANY SPOTS IN THE 60S (!). THIS FEELS QUITE
COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS RESPECTIVELY REMAINED IN THE 80S AND 70S THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH HAS BEEN THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE, TO BREAK DOWN FURTHER
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD IN THE OH VALLEY
REGION. DESPITE THESE CHANGES, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ON THE
WAY, THOUGH PEAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPERIENCED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA, THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE, AND
NE NC, MINUS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AND THE NC/MD BEACHES. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ALSO PROVIDE RELIEF BY THE EVENING. A FEW
DEGREES COOLER AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS "ONLY" IN THE LOWER 90S.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND MAY FLIRT WITH 105 F
HEAT INDICES, DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY AND MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
STORMS. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS, THERE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS, INCLUDING WHERE THEY WOULD
INITIATE. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE JUST TO OUR W AND NW
BUT A FEW OF THE CAMS (SUCH AS THE 00Z HRRR) ARE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT HIGHER COVERAGE IN OUR CWA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY RESIDUAL MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION AS POTENTIAL AREAS OF
INITIATION AND HIGHER COVERAGE. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE DECAYING
RIDGE WILL TEND TO KEEP FAR SE VA AND NE NC DRY, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A POP UP STORM GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. ON
THAT NOTE, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD ALSO POSE OF RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES. VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE
EXPECTED. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE
S.
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA
MONDAY. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TROUGHING SHARPENS. AGAIN, THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT
THE RRFS/REFS SUITE DEPICTS STORMS INITIALLY FORMING INLAND AND
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST BY THE EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD AGAIN BE THE MAIN RISKS FROM STORMS.
DEEP-LAYER WILL BE WEAK BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED
SHEAR ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. WHILE SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THE AREA, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SLIGHT RISK WAS EVENTUALLY
REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THE RISK OF WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE THREAT, MONDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
FAVORABLE DAY FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 2.2- 2.3" IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME WITH
DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILES SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BOTH THE
REFS AND HREF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF 3-4" AND THESE AMOUNTS COULD EASILY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN
URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WPC, A
SLIGHT ERO (LEVEL 2/5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AND INCLUDES MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKES SHAPE MIDWEEK. A RATHER HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY (POPS ~70%)
WITH GENERALLY CHC POPS (30-50%) WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL AGAIN BE A RISK FOR SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THIS IS MOSTLY FAVORED AT RIC LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY SBY THIS EVENING. WILL AGAIN
COVER W/ PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC AND SBY FOR LOCALIZED REDUCED VSBY
AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, VFR PREVAILS WITH SCT
AFTN CU INLAND. S WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY UP TO 15 KT FOR THE SE TERMINALS. PATCHY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS COULD AFFECT SBY LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY VFR PREVAILS THIS WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH MAINLY
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND HAD SHIFTED TO N/NE
BEHIND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, BUT IS NOW SHIFTING BACK TO S/SE 5-
10KT. SEAS ARE ~2FT WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME
DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
TODAY AND MONDAY (MAINLY S-SW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING S-
SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING), AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOUR
PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WHERE A SSE WIND INCREASES TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING MAINLY FOR THE CHES. BAY AND RIVERS, WITH POTENTIALLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS. ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
BE HANDLED WITH SMWS. SEAS WILL BE ~2FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 1-2FT WAVES
IN THE CHES. BAY, ALTHOUGH SEAS/WAVES MAY BUILD TO 2-3FT LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE INCREASED SSE FLOW. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES
IN THE CHES. BAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
RICHMOND, VA (RIC) TIED THE RECORD FOR TODAY (7/4) AT 100, LAST
SET IN 2002.
SALISBURY, MD (SBY) SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TODAY (7/4) OF 102,
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 100 FROM 1919.
NORFOLK, VA (ORF) SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TODAY (7/4) OF 100,
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 1879.
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-
528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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