994
FXUS61 KAKQ 052333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS EXPANDED TO
COVER MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS, HEAT INDICES PEAK
AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MONDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE NOT AS HOT AS THE PAST TWO DAYS, HEAT INDICES
PEAK AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PRODUCED THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE
BREAKS DOWN FURTHER TODAY, WHILE A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
IN THE OH VALLEY, ALLOWING NOT AS HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY. DESPITE
THE SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND 106 THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT THE
VA EASTERN SHORE AND NC/MD BEACHES, UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DROP THE TEMPERATURE THIS EVENING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONVECTION. NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, IN THE LOWER 90S, DESPITE DEW
POINTS REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT
HEAT INDICES LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY AND MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
STORMS. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN, MOSTLY IN THE PIEDMONT, AND MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER SE VA/NE NC, SO POP UP SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT THE DECAYING RIDGE WILL TRY TO INHIBIT STORMS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY AND
OUTFLOWS BOUNDARIES. THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS HAS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT MLCAPE AND DCAPE (ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN YESTERDAY), BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR IS A LIMITING FACTOR. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO
THE S.
THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA
MONDAY. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TROUGHING SHARPENS. THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR BUT THE
LATEST RRFS/REFS SUITE DEPICTS STORMS INITIALLY FORMING INLAND AND
MOVING TOWARD THE COAST BY THE EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
FLOODING CONCERN AS THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING
AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 2.0"
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN ANOMALY OF AROUND 150% OF NORMAL.
THE LATEST HREF HIGHLIGHTS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH A 30%
CHANCE OF 3.0"/3 HR AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-4". THIS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. WPC HAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK ERO TO NOW COVER
MOST OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE
IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKES SHAPE MIDWEEK. A RATHER HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY (POPS ~70%)
WITH GENERALLY CHC POPS (30-50%) WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST IN
THE 80S, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT SUNDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS
DURING THE 00Z/06 TAF PERIOD. STORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO WIND
DOWN, BUT A CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED NORTH OF RIC AS OF
2330Z. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF FOR RIC SINCE THE STORMS ARE
WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. ALSO REMOVED
STORMS FROM THE SBY TAF. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY
STORMS ACTIVITY WEST OF SBY AND THE STABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE
COAST ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THAT. CIGS DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT, LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING SBY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TONIGHT'S STORMS.
OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK, WITH MAINLY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING INTO THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MONDAY (MAINLY S-SW
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, BECOMING S-SE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON),
AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE A SSE WIND INCREASES TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND RIVERS, WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WHILE WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
- SITE: SUN 7/5
- RIC: 102/2012
- ORF: 98/2012
- SBY: 102/2012
- ECG: 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: SUN 7/5
- RIC: 79/2012
- ORF: 80/1999
- SBY: 81/2012
- ECG: 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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