514
FXUS61 KAKQ 061751
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA TODAY
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTRODUCED FOR TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA
AND INTERIOR NE NC TODAY. WIDESPREAD SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR
DRAINAGE, AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL
STORMS CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK,
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA AND INTERIOR NE NC TODAY. WIDESPREAD SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR
DRAINAGE, AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS
CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER, A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN
SHORE HAS SPARKED SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THIS AREA AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE,
CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OVER 2.0" AND SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
WHILE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK, MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY, DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE, AND ANY REMNANT
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAMS ALSO SUGGEST STORMS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AND THERE ARE
QUITE VARIED SOLUTIONS AMONG THE CAMS. THE LOW CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ON THE LATEST HRRR RUNS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE REST OF GUIDANCE; THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE
RELATED TO ITS OVER- MIXING BIAS (IT SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY).
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE HOT SIDE TODAY.
HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 105 F IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF SE VA
INTO NE NC. HOWEVER, THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT APPEARS
TOO LIMITED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES. FURTHERMORE,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
REGARDING TODAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOIST AIR MASS APPEARS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGH AND EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES. STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO TEND TO BE SLOW AND
ERRATIC. THERE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL IN BOTH THE HREF AND
REFS FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS. NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES FOR >4" IN THE 12Z MONDAY-12Z TUESDAY 24 HR PERIOD
ARE 20-40% WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PROBS. ENSEMBLE MAX TOTALS ALSO
APPROACH 6-8" IN THIS PERIOD, REFLECTIVE OF LOCALIZED WORST
CASE SCENARIOS WHERE PROLONGED TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING COULD
OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, PROBS FOR HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD ARE ALSO ELEVATED, WITH 30-50% PROBS FOR 3"/3HR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS W OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR- DRAINAGE AREAS,
DESPITE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEING MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, SHOULD
NOTE THAT SOME SPOTS HAVE SEEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND THESE LOCATIONS COULD BE AT HIGHER RISKS FOR
FLOODING TODAY. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, THINK THERE IS
SUFFICIENT JUSTIFICATION FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR CWA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER ON THE EASTERN SHORE
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE PRODUCING SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND (INITIALLY) STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT THERE IS MENTION
OF A POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF MODELS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST
CORRIDORS OF HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH AN INCREASING FOCUS ON THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER THAT TIME.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH A SIMILAR SETUP IN PLACE.
A FLASH FLOODING RISK MAY AGAIN MATERIALIZE, IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED RISKS FOR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE IN STORMS (SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK GENERALLY S OF I-64).
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOWER POPS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER FRONT MAY CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BECOMING
DEGRADED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OVER RIC. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
REDUCED VSBYS ARE LIKELY WITHIN STORMS. STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY ~06Z. BEHIND THE CONVECTION,
LOWERED CIGS ARE LIKELY AT RIC AND SBY FROM THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE (~06-15Z), POSSIBLY LINGERING LONGER AT SBY. MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOCALLY IFR CIGS AT SBY. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE S-SW BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEHIND
CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN
STORMS, BUT PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY TO
MID- WEEK, WITH MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY
GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST US TO OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING W-
E FROM NE MD ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA. THE WIND IS MAINLY S 5-
10KT. SEAS ARE ~2FT WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE S-SW 5-10KT THROUGH EARLY AFTN, AND THEN
BECOME SSE 8-12KT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING SW
5-10KT TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE BOUNDARY TO THE N THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THE WIND WILL
BE LIGHT, AND PRIMARILY NE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY, AND SSW TO THE
S OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING, WITH TSTMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING S
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES ENE 8-
12KT. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N THURSDAY, WITH SUB-SCA S/SE FLOW
THURSDAY BECOMING SW FRIDAY AND REMAINING SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL BE ~2FT
MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 2-3FT BY WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY ~3FT COASTAL
WATERS/3-4FT OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN
THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AND 1-2FT WAVES ELSEWHERE. SEAS SUBSIDE
BACK TO 2-3FT LATER IN THE WEEK WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY.
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-097-098-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/SW
AVIATION...KMC/SW
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
EQUIPMENT...
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