435
FXUS61 KAKQ 070619
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT NOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC TODAY. WIDESPREAD SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA AND INTERIOR NE NC TODAY. WIDESPREAD SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA WITH MESO-ANALYZED PWATS OF AROUND 2.0", WITH GREATER
THAN 2.0" VALUES ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE WEAK FORCING, MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE,
AND ANY REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING, PLAYING OFF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS CAUSING VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IN SOME
PLACES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN MORE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
MORE MESO-BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND AMPLE
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES, PROLIFIC RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LATEST HREF AND REFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR 30% CHANCE OF 3"/3HR ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF LOCALIZED 4-6". THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR-
DRAINAGE AREAS, DESPITE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEING MOSTLY DRY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME SPOTS HAVE SEEN HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THESE LOCATIONS COULD BE AT HIGHER
RISKS FOR FLOODING TODAY. SINCE CONVECTION HAS INITIATED EARLY, THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO START EARLY, IN EFFECT NOW UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(AT LEAST INITIALLY), AND MORE SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY (~20KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR), ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH AN INCREASING FOCUS ON
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AFTER THAT TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL STORMS CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
MORE INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SATURATED WITH PWATS AROUND OR ABOVE 2.0",
DESPITE THE CONVECTION TODAY, AS THE STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER
THE AREA AND SW WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE. THE HREF AND
REFS SHOW ANOTHER SIGNAL OF 30-50% OF 3"/3 HR OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL ERO
AND SPC A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK TUESDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA,
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SUBSEQUENT UPDATES INCLUDE UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LOWER POPS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A WEAK FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. ANOTHER FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN VA TO SE MD AS OF
06Z. LIFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AT SBY.
ELSEWHERE, A PATCH OF LIFR STRATUS WITH OBSERVED AT RIC, WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT ECG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR SBY, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
08Z. OTHERWISE, LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT SBY
THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE IFR CIGS AT RIC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GIVEN THAT RIC IS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS, AND MAINLY DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY PUSHES FARTHER INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY, WITH THE PROBABILITY
20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY, AND 30-50% BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EARLY TO MID-
WEEK, WITH MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST BY MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED WIND GUSTS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
US TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A WEAK, NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, EXTENDING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN MD/NORTHERN VA. OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWER OR STORMS, WINDS ARE PRIMARILY S-SW AND AVERAGE 5 TO 10
KNOTS. WINDS BECOME SSE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SW AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE BOUNDARY TO THE N TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT, AND PRIMARILY NE TO THE N OF THE
BOUNDARY, AND SSW TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ANY STORMS AGAIN HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY DROPPING S OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WIND BECOMES ENE 8-12KT. THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N THURSDAY, WITH SUB-SCA S/SE FLOW THURSDAY
BECOMING SW FRIDAY AND REMAINING SUB-SCA.
SEAS WILL BE ~2FT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 1-2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 2-3FT BY WEDNESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY ~3FT COASTAL WATERS/3-4FT OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN ONSHORE
FLOW, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AND 1-2FT
WAVES ELSEWHERE. SEAS SUBSIDE BACK TO 2-3FT LATER IN THE WEEK WITH 1-
2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-520-
523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
EQUIPMENT...
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