304
FXUS61 KAKQ 070731
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND SE
VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SLOW-
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK,
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
CENTRAL AND SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SLOW- MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
GOES MID AND UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS RATHER NEBULOUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBTLE BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VA TO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH THE 07Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.2".
THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH S TODAY AND BECOME A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH EVEN EPS/GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWING MEAN PW VALUES OF 2.2-2.3" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT OUR AREA IS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE RRQ OF A 65KT JET AT 200MB ALONG WITH SOME
TROUGHING AT 500MB, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE HREF AND REFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A REGION WITH ~30% CHC OF 3"/3HR PRIMARILY
ALONG AND S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
4-6" POSSIBLE. THIS IS WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH COVERS. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FRONT THE NORTHERN NECK
TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER WITH MORE DEEP
MOIST HEAVY RAIN SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE
LESS THAN PRIOR DAYS, AND ONCE AGAIN, THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING MIDWEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(CONCENTRATED MORE INLAND WEDNESDAY), WITH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HOT WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT. MID 80S
ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND EVENING SOME UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE. ANOTHER FRONT
MAY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS RETURNING.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN VA TO SE MD AS OF
06Z. LIFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW AT SBY.
ELSEWHERE, A PATCH OF LIFR STRATUS WITH OBSERVED AT RIC, WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT ECG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR SBY, WHICH COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
08Z. OTHERWISE, LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT SBY
THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE IFR CIGS AT RIC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST GIVEN THAT RIC IS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS, AND MAINLY DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY PUSHES FARTHER INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY, WITH THE PROBABILITY
20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY, AND 30-50% BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW IS ONGOING THIS MORNING. BENIGN CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE E-NE ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, 10-15
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON
THE OCEAN. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN ONSHORE OUT OF THE E. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N THURSDAY WITH SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW THURSDAY, TURNING TO THE
SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY TO DROP S
EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN POTENTIALLY NE SUNDAY.
SEAS OF 2-3 FT CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS NE WINDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BUILD
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF MD. WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY MAY
ALSO INCREASE TO ~3 FT, WITH 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
SEAS RETURN TO A TYPICAL 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY
AND RIVERS.
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-
520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
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