211
FXUS61 KAKQ 071723
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 18Z TAFS
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND SE
VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SLOW-
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
CENTRAL AND SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SLOW- MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
GOES MID AND UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS RATHER NEBULOUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBTLE BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VA TO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH THE 07Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.2".
THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH S TODAY AND BECOME A FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH EVEN EPS/GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWING MEAN PW VALUES OF 2.2-2.3" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT OUR AREA IS PROGGED
TO BE IN THE RRQ OF A 65KT JET AT 200MB ALONG WITH SOME
TROUGHING AT 500MB, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE HREF AND REFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A REGION WITH ~30% CHC OF 3"/3HR PRIMARILY
ALONG AND S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
4-6" POSSIBLE. THIS IS WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH COVERS. HOWEVER,
THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FRONT THE NORTHERN NECK
TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER WITH MORE DEEP
MOIST HEAVY RAIN SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE
LESS THAN PRIOR DAYS, AND ONCE AGAIN, THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR THURSDAY.
A WEAK FLOW PATTERN VERY TYPICAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING MIDWEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(CONCENTRATED MORE INLAND WEDNESDAY), WITH LOWER POPS FRIDAY
WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS INCREASED 500MB FLOW
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. THEREFORE, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT.
MID 80S ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND EVENING SOME UPPER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE. ANOTHER
FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 123 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST-CENTRAL VA TO SE VA AS OF 18Z.
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
THE MVFR CIGS ARE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT RIC
AND PHF SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR WHILE SBY WILL
REMAIN MVFR. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
AND LINGER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS, AND MAINLY DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY PUSHES FARTHER INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY, WITH THE PROBABILITY
20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY, AND 30-50% BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW IS ONGOING THIS MORNING. BENIGN CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE E-NE ACROSS THE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, 10-15
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON
THE OCEAN. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN ONSHORE OUT OF THE E. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N THURSDAY WITH SUB-SCA S-SE FLOW THURSDAY, TURNING TO THE
SW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS LIKELY TO DROP S
EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN POTENTIALLY NE SUNDAY.
SEAS OF 2-3 FT CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS NE WINDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BUILD
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF MD. WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY MAY
ALSO INCREASE TO ~3 FT, WITH 1-2 FT ELSEWHERE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
SEAS RETURN TO A TYPICAL 2-3 FT WITH WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY
AND RIVERS.
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-
102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-
065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...SW
EQUIPMENT...
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