156
FXUS61 KAKQ 080006
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
806 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 18Z TAFS
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) REMAINS FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
CENTRAL AND SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SLOW- MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
CENTRAL AND SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SLOW- MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARILY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH SUBTLE KINKS WITHIN THE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
SAGGED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL VA TO SE VA. NORTH OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPS RANGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE BEST AREAS TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST. HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL GIVEN THE BAD LAPSE RATES,
WEAK DCAPE, AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR THE STORMS
IS A HOT AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500J/KG. WITH A HOT AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
(EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT) PWATS ARE BETWEEN 2-2.3". THESE PWATS MIXED
WITH THE MODEST TO STRONG MLCAPE WILL HELP ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THE 12Z HREF
CONTINUES TO LOCK IN WITH ~30% CHC OF 3"/3HR PRIMARILY ALONG AND S
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE. WITH
THE MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR
THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT AND A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
"SLIGHTLY" COOLER WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NORTH OF I-64 AND ALONG
THE COAST. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE AREA BUT
SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER
STORM WOULD BE ACROSS THE SW WHERE THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER FOR A CHANCE OF STRONGER
TO SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND KEEPS STORMS SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED. THE MAIN THREAT
AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S. ANOTHER FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS
RETURNING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 805 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH ORF AND PHF CURRENTLY SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. WITH
THE MORE SPORADIC NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION, TIMING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT THE VARYING TERMINALS PROVED TO BE A DIFFICULT TASK,
SO A ROUGH ESTIMATE WAS PUT IN PLACE AND WILL BE AMENDED AS
NECESSARY. THERE WAS MORE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED NEAR SBY, SO
HAVE REMOVED THE PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT AGAIN, WILL
ADJUST THE TAF AS NECESSARY IF STORMS START TO DEVELOP NEAR THAT
AREA. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE PIEDMONT THAT COULD CREEP INTO RIC'S AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF BR AT RIC, BUT COULD SEE IT OTHER TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
ONES THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS
FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY PUSHES FARTHER INLAND WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CHANCES OF
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY, WITH THE PROBABILITY
20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY, AND 30-50% BY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 10-15 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS THAT ARE
GENERALLY ONSHORE. WINDS OFF OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE ARE A TOUCH
HIGHER, AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 2FT FOR MOST WATERS, AROUND
3FT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WINDS PICK
TO AROUND 10-15KT OVER ALL MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT, STAYING
SLIGHTLY BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIME. WINDS TURN SE THURS THEN SW THURS NIGHT
AND FRI, GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15KT. SEAS STAY AROUND 3FT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND WED,
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES THURS AND FRI. SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. .
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-
102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-
065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AC
EQUIPMENT...
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