801
FXUS61 KAKQ 080555
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 18Z TAFS
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) REMAINS FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND
SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SLOW-
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS EFFECT FOR THE PIEDMONT,
CENTRAL AND SE VA, AND NE NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SLOW- MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARILY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH SUBTLE KINKS WITHIN THE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
SAGGED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL VA TO SE VA. NORTH OF THE FRONT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPS RANGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE BEST AREAS TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST. HOWEVER,
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL GIVEN THE BAD LAPSE RATES,
WEAK DCAPE, AND VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR THE STORMS
IS A HOT AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500J/KG. WITH A HOT AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
(EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT) PWATS ARE BETWEEN 2-2.3". THESE PWATS MIXED
WITH THE MODEST TO STRONG MLCAPE WILL HELP ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THE 12Z HREF
CONTINUES TO LOCK IN WITH ~30% CHC OF 3"/3HR PRIMARILY ALONG AND S
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE. WITH
THE MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE PIEDMONT, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ADDED FOR
THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND A TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT AND A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
"SLIGHTLY" COOLER WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NORTH OF I-64 AND ALONG
THE COAST. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE AREA BUT
SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER
STORM WOULD BE ACROSS THE SW WHERE THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER FOR A CHANCE OF STRONGER
TO SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND KEEPS STORMS SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED. THE MAIN THREAT
AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S. ANOTHER FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS
RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY PUSHING S ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AS OF
06Z. PRIMARILY VFR. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH 08Z. SCATTERED NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED TSTMS LINGER THROUGH 08-10Z, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. ANY IFR CIGS
LINGER THROUGH 14-15Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR, AND
THEN VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
AFTN. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES MOVE W OF A LINE FROM RIC TO ECG
BY LATER IN THE AFTN. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE E/ENE 5-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO ESE LATER IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL IFR/MVFR STRATUS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY,
WITH THE PROBABILITY 20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY (BETTER CHANCES N/NW
OF AN RIC-SBY LINE), THEN 40-60% BY SATURDAY, AND LESS THAN 30%
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 10-15 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST
WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS THAT ARE
GENERALLY ONSHORE. WINDS OFF OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE ARE A TOUCH
HIGHER, AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE AROUND 2FT FOR MOST WATERS, AROUND
3FT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WINDS PICK
TO AROUND 10-15KT OVER ALL MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT, STAYING
SLIGHTLY BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD
TO 3-4FT DURING THIS TIME. WINDS TURN SE THURS THEN SW THURS NIGHT
AND FRI, GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15KT. SEAS STAY AROUND 3FT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND WED,
BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES THURS AND FRI. SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. .
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
EQUIPMENT...
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