267
FXUS61 KAKQ 081737
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 18Z TAF
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA
AND NE NC.
2) HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES,
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED IN VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY TO SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND COASTAL NE NC. AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED IN VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN NECK, AND THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AXIS OF PW
VALUES OF 2.3-2.4" AND MODEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AN
AREA OF SLOW MOVING TO NEARLY STATIONARY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS LINGERED OVER THE NORTHERN NECK AND THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME REPORTS OF FLOODING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST TRENDS
FROM THE HRRR DEPICT THAT THIS AREA OF STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE
LINGERS IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHES. BAY
THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ALSO HIGHLY LOCALIZED,
AND COULD CREEP INTO HAMPTON ROADS.
OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTN TSTMS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SW TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO
THE PRIOR TWO DAYS. HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MORE
LIMITED AND LOCALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER TSTM CORES
ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. NOT AS HOT
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/AROUND
80F AT THE COAST, TO THE MID 80S INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE 500MB FLOW INCREASES TO 30-35KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH SIMILAR VALUES FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY IS
COVERAGE GIVEN MORE DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE
00Z/08 HREF HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM NE OF THE
RIC METRO TO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE (AND POINTS N). HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EACH DAY. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD DROP ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, BUT READINGS UP TO ~105F ARE POSSIBLE
IN NE NC (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND).
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
TRENDING DRIER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 136 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SBY REMAINS VFR WHILE THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
REMAIN MVFR AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AND
VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NE NC. THE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ECG ~1730Z HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THE VA TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY ORF AND PHF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF RIC.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AND E ~5-10KT. BY
TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AS
THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS NC AND VA. THESE CIGS SHOULD CLEAR BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING OF THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY,
WITH THE PROBABILITY 20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY (BETTER CHANCES N/NW
OF AN RIC-SBY LINE), THEN 40-60% BY SATURDAY, AND LESS THAN 30%
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. NE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.
- THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER TODAY BUT INCREASES AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING ARE E-NE 10-15 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SIMILAR WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND TURNING TO THE S-SE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 FT DURING THIS TIME AND AROUND 4 FT 20+ NM
OFFSHORE. S-SW SUB-SCA FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH 2-3 FT SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE N/NW SATURDAY AND THEN NE
SUNDAY.
WHILE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEK, THE CHANCE TODAY IS COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. STILL, SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT THREAT IN THE WESTERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, INCREASE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST TODAY DUE TO NEARSHORE
3 FT WAVES AND CHOPPY SURF. A LOW RISK RETURNS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
REPAIRS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED IN THE KAKQ RADAR AND IT IS
CURRENTLY IN SERVICE. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNTIME WILL BE
NEEDED TODAY FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CALIBRATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...SW
EQUIPMENT...
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