925
FXUS61 KAKQ 081939
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE NORTHERN NECK
AND EASTERN SHORE FOR THURSDAY.
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION, NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE FORECAST
CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1)SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUST.
2) SLIGHTLY WARMER SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT HAS BEEN NOTED FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS CURRENTLY IN NC.
BEHIND THE FRONT A MODEST WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE ALREADY TO BEGUN TO INITIATE ALONG A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NE NC AND STRETCHING UP ALONG THE ROUTE-15
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A STORM
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AS THE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE WEAK SYNOPTICS IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION, VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.9-2.2" AND
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG. AGAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA
WOULD BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND
POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. FOR TONIGHT, THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS DAY TIME HEATING IS LOST. AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A 500MB TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BE 30-35KT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, WITH SIMILAR VALUES
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE. WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
STRENGTHENING AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. FOR THURSDAY SEVERE THREAT THE
12Z CAMS HAVE HINTED ON MUCH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURING OVER THE
NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. THIS MAKES SENSE AS IT IS BEST
COLOCATED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
WEAK JET STEAK. THESE PORTIONS COULD ALSO SEE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AS
DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR GIVING THE STORMS LESS COVERAGE. IN ADDITION
TO THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THESE WARM TEMPS MIXED WITH HIGH DEWS WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100S. THE
BEST PLACE FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 105 WOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE OF THE 105 HEAT
INDICES, NO HEAT ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS HINT ON A DRIER
PATTERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. SEASONALLY HOT
AND HUMID SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 136 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SBY REMAINS VFR WHILE THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
REMAIN MVFR AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AND
VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-22Z. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NE NC. THE
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ECG ~1730Z HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN BUT COULD
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THE VA TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY ORF AND PHF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF RIC.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AND E ~5-10KT. BY
TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AS
THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS NC AND VA. THESE CIGS SHOULD CLEAR BY THE MID
TO LATE MORNING OF THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN THURSDAY,
WITH THE PROBABILITY 20% OR LESS BY FRIDAY (BETTER CHANCES N/NW
OF AN RIC-SBY LINE), THEN 40-60% BY SATURDAY, AND LESS THAN 30%
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. E-NE 10-15
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER TODAY BUT INCREASES AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE E-NE AT 10-15 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SLOW
MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SHIFT OUT OF THE S-SE OVERNIGHT AT THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 3 FT DURING THIS TIME AND AROUND 4 FT 20+ NM
OFFSHORE. S-SE WINDS PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE W-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY WITH 2-
4 FT SEAS. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE N-NW SATURDAY AND THEN NE
SUNDAY.
DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER,
THE CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH.
SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST TODAY DUE TO NEARSHORE 3 FT
WAVES AND CHOPPY SURF. A LOW RISK RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
REPAIRS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED IN THE KAKQ RADAR AND IT IS
CURRENTLY IN SERVICE. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNTIME WILL BE
NEEDED TOMORROW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CALIBRATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...SW/AGK
EQUIPMENT...
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