841
FXUS61 KAKQ 090605
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE NORTHERN NECK
AND EASTERN SHORE FOR THURSDAY.
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION, NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE FORECAST
CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1)SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS A STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUST.
2) SLIGHTLY WARMER SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
3) NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 339 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT HAS BEEN NOTED FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS CURRENTLY IN NC.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A MODEST WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY TO BEGUN TO INITIATE ALONG A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS NE NC AND STRETCHING UP
ALONG THE ROUTE-15 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR A STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS AS THE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES
OFF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE WEAK SYNOPTICS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION, VERY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.9-2.2" AND
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000J/KG. AGAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA WOULD BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE STORMS CAN INITIATE AND
POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. FOR TONIGHT, THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS DAY TIME HEATING IS
LOST. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO
A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A 500MB TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BE 30-35KT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, WITH SIMILAR VALUES
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE. WITH THE UPPER LEVELS
STRENGTHENING AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING, A STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. FOR THE THURSDAY SEVERE
THREAT, THE 12Z CAMS HAVE HINTED ON MUCH STRONGER CONVECTION
OCCURING OVER THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. THIS MAKES
SENSE AS IT IS BEST COLOCATED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE WEAK JET STEAK. THESE AREAS COULD ALSO
SEE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AS DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR
GIVING THE STORMS LESS COVERAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS,
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
EACH DAY. THESE WARM TEMPS MIXED WITH HIGH DEWS WILL ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER 90 TO LOWER 100S. THE BEST
PLACE FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH 105F WOULD BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WITH SUCH LOW COVERAGE OF
THE 105 HEAT INDICES, NO HEAT ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BEFORE TRENDING DRIER LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS HINT ON A DRIER
PATTERNS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. SEASONALLY HOT
AND HUMID SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN INTO THE 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
AREAS OF STRATUS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 06Z.
MVFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED AT RIC AND ECG WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. ORF AND PHF ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 08Z,
WITH RIC FALLING TO IFR ~08Z. SBY SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A TSTM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS
VERY LOW. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER ~15Z. THERE IS A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE BEST PROBABILITY IS A
RIC AND SBY WHERE PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED. ANY TSTMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITION PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SSW
5-10KT TODAY, AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS BY FRIDAY IS
GENERALLY ~30% AT RIC AND 30-50% AT SBY, WITH 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE, THEN 60-70% BY SATURDAY. TRENDING DRIER AND VFR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. E-NE 10-15
KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER TODAY BUT INCREASES AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE E-NE AT 10-15 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SLOW
MOVING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AND SHIFT OUT OF THE S-SE OVERNIGHT AT THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 3 FT DURING THIS TIME AND AROUND 4 FT 20+ NM
OFFSHORE. S-SE WINDS PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE W-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY WITH 2-
4 FT SEAS. WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE N-NW SATURDAY AND THEN NE
SUNDAY.
DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER,
THE CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH.
SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST TODAY DUE TO NEARSHORE 3 FT
WAVES AND CHOPPY SURF. A LOW RISK RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
REPAIRS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED IN THE KAKQ RADAR AND IT IS
CURRENTLY IN SERVICE. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNTIME WILL BE
NEEDED TOMORROW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CALIBRATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW/99
EQUIPMENT...
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