456
FXUS61 KAKQ 100519
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
3) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT AT
700MB. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, THERE ARE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LOCATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STRETCHING DOWN TOWARDS SOUTHERN VA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO INITIATE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS OF
2:30PM. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AS A HOT AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE ~30-40KT OF
BULK-SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED ACROSS I-
64 NORTH AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS WHERE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY PLACED. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING CAMS SHOW THESE STORMS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST. WILL ALSO NOTE THERE IS A RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, STORMS WILL NEED TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
CONTINUOUSLY AS STORM MOTION IS TOO FAST. NOW THE STORM THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS LOW BUT THERE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A THREAT. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALLOWING DCAPE VALUES NEARING ~1000J/KG.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE REMAINS TO LOW FOR A WATCH AND SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAUSING STORMS TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. BY LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
SHORE AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE PERSISTING CLOUD COVER TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BUT WITH THE MODEST TO HIGH
DEWS IN PLACE HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. ACROSS
THE SE DAYTIME HEATING AND LESS CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES ARE HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S ACROSS SE VA AND AROUND 105 ACROSS NC WHERE THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT T HE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S WHILE ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND POTENTIAL UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE QUESTION OF COVERAGE INTENSITY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ON SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE SHORT-WAVES WILL HELP
INITIATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DOWNSLOPING OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AND GIVE LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP STORM COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS TO BE VERY MARGINAL IF A STORM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.
WITH THE DOWNSLOPING THIS WILL, HOWEVER, ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S TO THE
EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR SATURDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS MULTIPLE THREATS FOR THE DAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RICH MOISTURE AND PW VALUES 120- 140% OF NORMAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL ALSO
USHER IN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEARING THE LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND PIVOTING INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, THEY REMAIN QUITE LOW NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS HINT ON A DRIER PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/10 TAFS. ALL CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (~5KT) AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W OR
W/SW AROUND 5-10 KT FRIDAY MORNING. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO RIC AND SBY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR
STORM COULD BE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TRENDING DRIER AND VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND POTOMAC RIVER.
LATEST SURFACE DEPICTED LIGHT S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME W THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS DIURNAL
PATTERN CONTINUES FRI WITH LIGHT S/SSE WINDS DURING THE DAY BECOMING
SW OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS SAT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW
FROM SUN THROUGH MON. DURING THIS TIME, NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS BUILD TO 4-5
FT WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY. AS SUCH,
SCAS MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING.
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRI AND SAT.
ADDITIONALLY, NUISANCE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE BORDERING THE CHES BAY AND THE COUNTIES ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE POTOMAC RIVER.
EQUIPMENT
REPAIRS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED IN THE KAKQ RADAR AND IT IS
CURRENTLY IN SERVICE. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNTIME WILL BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MAINTENANCE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...RMM/SW
EQUIPMENT...
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