488
FXUS61 KAKQ 100641
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z TAF DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
3) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 327 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT AT
700MB. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, THERE ARE MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LOCATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT STRETCHING DOWN TOWARDS SOUTHERN VA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO INITIATE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS OF
2:30PM. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AS A HOT AND HUMID ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S. IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE ~30-40KT OF
BULK-SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED ACROSS I-
64 NORTH AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THIS IS WHERE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY PLACED. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING CAMS SHOW THESE STORMS STRENGTHENING
THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUST. WILL ALSO NOTE THERE IS A RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN THE SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, STORMS WILL NEED TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
CONTINUOUSLY AS STORM MOTION IS TOO FAST. NOW THE STORM THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS LOW BUT THERE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A THREAT. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALLOWING DCAPE VALUES NEARING ~1000J/KG.
HOWEVER, COVERAGE REMAINS TO LOW FOR A WATCH AND SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAUSING STORMS TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. BY LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
SHORE AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE PERSISTING CLOUD COVER TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BUT WITH THE MODEST TO HIGH
DEWS IN PLACE HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. ACROSS
THE SE DAYTIME HEATING AND LESS CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES ARE HOVERING AROUND THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S ACROSS SE VA AND AROUND 105 ACROSS NC WHERE THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT T HE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S WHILE ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S AND POTENTIAL UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE QUESTION OF COVERAGE INTENSITY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ON SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE SHORT-WAVES WILL HELP
INITIATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DOWNSLOPING OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AND GIVE LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP STORM COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND THE SEVERE RISK
LOOKS TO BE VERY MARGINAL IF A STORM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.
WITH THE DOWNSLOPING THIS WILL, HOWEVER, ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S TO THE
EAST, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR SATURDAY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE REMAINS MULTIPLE THREATS FOR THE DAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RICH MOISTURE AND PW VALUES 120- 140% OF NORMAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL ALSO
USHER IN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEARING THE LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND PIVOTING INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, THEY REMAIN QUITE LOW NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS HINT ON A DRIER PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/10 TAFS. ALL CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (~5KT) AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W OR
W/SW AROUND 5-10 KT FRIDAY MORNING. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO RIC AND SBY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR
STORM COULD BE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TRENDING DRIER AND VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. W-SW WINDS
TURN SSE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE VEERING BACK OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- THAT FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING. SSW
WINDS ~10 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS OF THIS WRITING,
WITH W WINDS 10 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THIS
SAME GENERAL PATTERN HOLDS THIS MORNING, UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TURNS LIGHT WINDS TO THE S/SSE ~5-10 KT, BECOMING SW
ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS TO BECOME
NNW POST- FRONTAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. THE RESULTING E-NE WIND WAVE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD, APPROACHING TO 4-5 FT DURING THIS SAME SUNDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY PERIOD, 3-4 FT INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA- LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
MONDAY AND MON NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SOUTH
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...MAM
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