130
FXUS61 KAKQ 101711
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
111 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL CAUSE
LESS INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG MLCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, WIND SHEAR IS
LIMITED. ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC MAINTAINS
CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE LOWER IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND NEAR
100F ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY, THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BETTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAN TODAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND ~2.00" PWAT ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY STORM. SPC MAINTAINS THE ENTIRE FA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SIMILAR
APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, PUSHING SOUTHWARDS, LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S
FROM A DRIER AIRMASS, AND COMBINED WITH THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES,
THESE DAYS WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT. LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND TO THE 90S. RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE
LOW WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/10 TAFS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CU AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS ARE AROUND W/SW AROUND 5- 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INITIATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS OF 17Z. WITH STORMS INITIATING EARLIER
THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD PROB 30S FOR ALL TAF
SITES. SBY AND ECG HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT COULD
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS LOSE MOMENTUM LATER THIS
EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING THE STORMS WILL HAVE CLEARED AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND IF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. TRENDING DRIER AND VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1055 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W 5-10 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME S/SE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA/BAY BREEZE, BECOMING SW ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS TO BECOME NNW POST-
FRONTAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ELEVATED ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. THE RESULTING
E-NE WIND WAVE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD, APPROACHING TO
4-5 FT DURING THIS SAME SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY PERIOD,
3-4 FT INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. ACCORDINGLY, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA- LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER MONDAY AND MON NIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: GIVEN LIFEGUARD REPORTS, HAVE UPGRADED THE RIP
CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY TO A MODERATE RISK. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR SAT, HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE
THAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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