958
FXUS61 KAKQ 101849
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL CAUSE
LESS INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG MLCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, WIND SHEAR IS
LIMITED. ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC MAINTAINS
CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE LOWER IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND NEAR
100F ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY, THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BETTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAN TODAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND ~2.00" PWAT ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY STORM. SPC MAINTAINS THE ENTIRE FA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SIMILAR
APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, PUSHING SOUTHWARDS, LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S
FROM A DRIER AIRMASS, AND COMBINED WITH THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES,
THESE DAYS WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT. LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND TO THE 90S. RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE
LOW WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/10 TAFS. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CU AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS ARE AROUND W/SW AROUND 5- 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE INITIATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS OF 17Z. WITH STORMS INITIATING EARLIER
THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD PROB 30S FOR ALL TAF
SITES. SBY AND ECG HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT COULD
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CIGS AND VIS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS LOSE MOMENTUM LATER THIS
EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING THE STORMS WILL HAVE CLEARED AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND IF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. TRENDING DRIER AND VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
AREA BEACHES AND ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W/S 5-10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME S/SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA/BAY BREEZE,
BECOMING SW ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZE. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NNE 10-15 KT
SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW FROM SUN THROUGH MON.
DURING THIS TIME, NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER CHES BAY. AS SUCH, SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN WITH GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT
THREAT IS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES THAN THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. FOR SAT, HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND HAVE A LOW RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES. THIS FITS THE DISTRIBUTION OF RIP CURRENTS REPORTED FROM
LIFEGUARDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, THE PERIOD
REMAINS HIGHER IN THE MORNING AROUND LOW TIDE (8-9 SECONDS) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BEACHES. BY SUN, WINDS BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE,
LINGERING INTO MON. HOWEVER, PERIODS ARE MODELED TO BE LOW ON SUN
(~5 SECONDS) WITH PERIODS INCREASING TO 7-8 SECONDS ON MON. AS SUCH,
HAVE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EVERYWHERE ON SUN AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MON (MODERATE NORTH).
COASTAL FLOODING: TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WE HEAD INTO A PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
HIGHER OF EACH DAILY HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE
INTO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TONIGHT IS THE LOWER TIDE WITH MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING
EXPECTED (LOCALLY MINOR AT BISHOPS HEAD) ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES
BAY. BY SUN NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AT DUCK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...RMM
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