235
FXUS61 KAKQ 110536
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR
TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
3) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST. .
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE 700MB SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WAVES HAVE HELPED INITIATE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG A LEE-TROUGH. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE
STORMS REMAINS QUITE WEAK. WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS OCCURING TODAY IT
HAS CAUSED DEW POINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
(PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SE. HOWEVER, WITH ADEQUATE DAY TIME
HEATING IT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
CREATING ENOUGH DCAPE (1000-1300J/KG) TO WHERE IF ANY STORM IS ABLE
TO BECOME MATURE COULD POSE THE RISK OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUST. THROUGH THE EVENING STORMS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 BEFORE DYING OUT BY LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND STORMS LOSE THEIR ENERGY.
BY TONIGHT, THE STORMS WILL HAVE LOST THEIR ENERGY AND THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT ON MULTIPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT SO DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS 15-20%. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
WITH A STRONGER SURFACE FORCING THIS MAY PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR
A HIGHER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE STILL
REMAINS THE QUESTION OF THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS. BOTH THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY LOOK MEAGER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO JUST ENOUGH BULK-
SHEAR 25-35KT TO WHERE STORMS COULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. IN
ADDITION, AS THE SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE DEWS ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S AND DAY TIME TEMPS TO BE IN UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THIS SHOULD ALLOW ML CAPE TO BUILD BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG. THIS
IS JUST ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE INGREDIENTS FOR ANY STORM TO BECOME MATURE
TO POISE THE RISK OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST. WILL ALSO MENTION
THERE IS A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN PWATS ~2". HOWEVER, THE
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE GIVEN STORM MOTIONS
ARE SLIGHT TOO FAST AND MODELS HAVING DISAGREEMENT ON STORM
CONVERGENCE. BY SATURDAY EVENING STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS ENERGY IS
LOST.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ARE WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS MODELS DO HINT ON A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT MAY HELP FIRE STORMS. BY THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS NEARING THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PIVOTING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, THEY REMAIN QUITE
LOW NEXT WEEK AS MODELS HINT ON A DRIER PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/11 TAFS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH RIC/SBY LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAN THE
SE TERMINALS. LOWERED VSBY AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORM. THERE IS SOME HINTS TOWARDS LOWERED MVFR CIGS BEHIND ANY
CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MOSTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS IN THE SOUTH. TRENDING DRIER
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
AREA BEACHES AND ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W/S 5-10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME S/SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA/BAY BREEZE,
BECOMING SW ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZE. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NNE 10-15 KT
SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW FROM SUN THROUGH MON.
DURING THIS TIME, NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER CHES BAY. AS SUCH, SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN WITH GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT
THREAT IS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES THAN THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. FOR SAT, HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND HAVE A LOW RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES. THIS FITS THE DISTRIBUTION OF RIP CURRENTS REPORTED FROM
LIFEGUARDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, THE PERIOD
REMAINS HIGHER IN THE MORNING AROUND LOW TIDE (8-9 SECONDS) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BEACHES. BY SUN, WINDS BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE,
LINGERING INTO MON. HOWEVER, PERIODS ARE MODELED TO BE LOW ON SUN
(~5 SECONDS) WITH PERIODS INCREASING TO 7-8 SECONDS ON MON. AS SUCH,
HAVE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EVERYWHERE ON SUN AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MON (MODERATE NORTH).
COASTAL FLOODING: TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WE HEAD INTO A PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
HIGHER OF EACH DAILY HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE
INTO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TONIGHT IS THE LOWER TIDE WITH MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING
EXPECTED (LOCALLY MINOR AT BISHOPS HEAD) ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES
BAY. BY SUN NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AT DUCK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM
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