113
FXUS61 KAKQ 110647
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
247 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-64.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER AIR RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, PUSHING
SOUTHWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
HELPING INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM
THE STRONGER FORCING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
GIVEN MODEL PROFILING. A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0" ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE WARM, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY ALLOW MODEST INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AIDING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, IF ALLOWED TO MATURE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN
URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
WITH THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
RETURNS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MIDWEEK, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/11 TAFS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH RIC/SBY LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAN THE
SE TERMINALS. LOWERED VSBY AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORM. THERE IS SOME HINTS TOWARDS LOWERED MVFR CIGS BEHIND ANY
CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MOSTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS IN THE SOUTH. TRENDING DRIER
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL
AREA BEACHES AND ONLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W/S 5-10 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME S/SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA/BAY BREEZE,
BECOMING SW ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZE. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SAT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME N BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NNE 10-15 KT
SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRONG ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW FROM SUN THROUGH MON.
DURING THIS TIME, NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER CHES BAY. AS SUCH, SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN WITH GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURNING.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT THE RIP CURRENT
THREAT IS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES THAN THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. FOR SAT, HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND HAVE A LOW RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES. THIS FITS THE DISTRIBUTION OF RIP CURRENTS REPORTED FROM
LIFEGUARDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, THE PERIOD
REMAINS HIGHER IN THE MORNING AROUND LOW TIDE (8-9 SECONDS) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BEACHES. BY SUN, WINDS BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE,
LINGERING INTO MON. HOWEVER, PERIODS ARE MODELED TO BE LOW ON SUN
(~5 SECONDS) WITH PERIODS INCREASING TO 7-8 SECONDS ON MON. AS SUCH,
HAVE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EVERYWHERE ON SUN AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MON (MODERATE NORTH).
COASTAL FLOODING: TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WE HEAD INTO A PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
HIGHER OF EACH DAILY HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE
INTO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TONIGHT IS THE LOWER TIDE WITH MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING
EXPECTED (LOCALLY MINOR AT BISHOPS HEAD) ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES
BAY. BY SUN NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AT DUCK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM
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