054
FXUS61 KAKQ 110712
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
312 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-64.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER AIR RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, PUSHING
SOUTHWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
HELPING INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM
THE STRONGER FORCING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
GIVEN MODEL PROFILING. A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0" ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE WARM, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY ALLOW MODEST INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AIDING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, IF ALLOWED TO MATURE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN
URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
WITH THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
RETURNS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MIDWEEK, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/11 TAFS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH RIC/SBY LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS EARLIER IN THE EVENING THAN THE
SE TERMINALS. LOWERED VSBY AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY STORM. THERE IS SOME HINTS TOWARDS LOWERED MVFR CIGS BEHIND ANY
CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, MOSTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS IN THE SOUTH. TRENDING DRIER
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES TODAY, AND FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE BY
THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W/SW 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE, 3-4
FT OFFSHORE OF 20NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW 10-15 KT POST-FRONTAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND A SMW OR TWO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS VEER TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE/ENE WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD, AND COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MIDDAY MONDAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDS AND OVER AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEARSHORE COASTAL ZONES FOR SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES TODAY, WITH A LOW RIP RISK PERSISTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW AS WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE, LINGERING INTO MONDAY. LINGERING
STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES.
COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER OF EACH
DAILY HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE INTO ACTION OR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
TODAY, THIS WILL BE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, WITH SOME NUISANCE TO NEAR-MINOR WATER LEVELS ON THE BAY
SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOCAL TIDAL RIVERS, AND POTENTIALLY AT DUCK AND
WACHAPREAGUE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...MAM
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