135
FXUS61 KAKQ 111818
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE DISCUSSIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER TIMING OF
CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND FAR
SE VA/NE NC.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER AIR RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE OHIO VALLEY, PUSHING
SOUTHWARD. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
HELPING INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. A HIGHER
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FROM
THE STRONGER FORCING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
GIVEN MODEL PROFILING. A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0" ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE WARM, MOIST AIR WILL LIKELY ALLOW MODEST INSTABILITY
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AIDING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, IF ALLOWED TO MATURE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN
URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
WITH THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK TO SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
RETURNS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS MIDWEEK, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SCT-BKN CU CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND FAR SE VA/NE NC.
POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A COLD FRONT ALOFT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
TONIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT FOR
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN (POTENTIALLY INTO MON). HOWEVER,
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORED OVER
A LONG DURATION LIGHT RAIN. AS SUCH, HAVE PROB30S FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE
THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN, THINK THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS OPPOSED TO STORMS. HOWEVER, ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD
ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON APART FROM BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR (~2500-3000) ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD APART FROM SBY
WHICH COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z. WILL NOTE THAT
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SBY DROPPING TO IFR CIGS FROM 6-14Z SUN.
AS SUCH, CIGS MAY TREND LOWER FOR THAT TERMINAL. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES TODAY, AND FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE BY
THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY W/SW 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE, 3-4
FT OFFSHORE OF 20NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW 10-15 KT POST-FRONTAL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND A SMW OR TWO POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS VEER TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WEAK
COOL AIR ADVECTION NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE/ENE WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING
THIS PERIOD, AND COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MIDDAY MONDAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR WINDS AND OVER AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEARSHORE COASTAL ZONES FOR SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES TODAY, WITH A LOW RIP RISK PERSISTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW AS WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE, LINGERING INTO MONDAY. LINGERING
STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD
SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES.
COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER OF EACH
DAILY HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE INTO ACTION OR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
TODAY, THIS WILL BE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, WITH SOME NUISANCE TO NEAR-MINOR WATER LEVELS ON THE BAY
SIDE OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOCAL TIDAL RIVERS, AND POTENTIALLY AT DUCK AND
WACHAPREAGUE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
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