959
FXUS61 KAKQ 111915
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VA AND MD EASTERN SHORE
ALONG THE CHES BAY FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE TODAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE TODAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
WITH N/NW WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND W WINDS SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
FAR SE VA/NE NC AND THE LOWER CHES BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE INTO KY/TN BY SUN BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTH MON. WILL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL
INTO SC BY SUN, AN EFFECTIVE 500MB W/E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALOFT (BEST VIEWED AT 500MB) FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS MODELED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN VA FROM THIS
EVENING INTO MON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MON.
THE FIRST WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES IN FROM W
TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND DCAPE OF 800-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER,
MLCAPE IS MODELED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK (500-1000 J/KG) WITH
THE GREATEST SHEAR GENERALLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE W/NW SURFACE WINDS APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1.8-2.2" (LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE) EXPECTED FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TALL,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WHICH SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
AT THE SAME TIME, SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALOFT. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES TONIGHT THROUGH SUN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64. WHILE CAMS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE EXACT
MORPHOLOGY OF CONVECTION, INDIVIDUAL MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5". AS SUCH, WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA TODAY AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 SUN. THERE IS EVEN A
SMALL SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF
THE FA SUN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS ACROSS URBAN AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MON AS SOME MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS WHILE OTHERS
HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS LOCALLY. AS SUCH, KEPT NBM POPS WHICH HAVE A 60-85%
CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 MON (AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE). IN ANY CASE, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH MON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WILL NOTE THAT SPC HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT FRI
(JULY 17), HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SUN AND MON, TEMPS HAVE
TRENDED COOLER. HIGHS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 80F
IN SOME LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF BOTH DAYS. WILL NOTE THAT TEMPS COULD BE QUITE COOL MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING IF CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE 60S INLAND.
HOWEVER, SOME ADJUSTED MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
LOWER 60S AND EVEN LOCALLY UPPER 50S. A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS
ARRIVES TUE WITH A WARMUP EXPECTED WED-FRI AS A RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS EXPANDS TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE WED-FRI WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SCT-BKN CU CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND FAR SE VA/NE NC.
POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A COLD FRONT ALOFT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
TONIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT FOR
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SUN (POTENTIALLY INTO MON). HOWEVER,
EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORED OVER
A LONG DURATION LIGHT RAIN. AS SUCH, HAVE PROB30S FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE
THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN, THINK THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS
AS OPPOSED TO STORMS. HOWEVER, ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD
ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE, CIGS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON APART FROM BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR (~2500-3000) ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD APART FROM SBY
WHICH COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z. WILL NOTE THAT
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SBY DROPPING TO IFR CIGS FROM 6-14Z SUN.
AS SUCH, CIGS MAY TREND LOWER FOR THAT TERMINAL. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WNW THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CAPES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED BELOW MWS CRITERIA SO FAR.
WINDS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 5- 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1 FT OR LESS, WHILE SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE BEING MEASURED BETWEEN 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS VEER TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WEAK CAA
NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES HUNG UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY MONDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY
STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE MIDDLE BAY DROPPING OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND THE LOWER BAY (INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE BAY)
REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD
BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND STARTING EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR 5 FT SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES
TODAY, WITH A LOW RIP RISK PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME ELEVATED AND
ONSHORE, LINGERING INTO MONDAY. LINGERING STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES.
MEANWHILE, A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD SWELL (~7 SEC) WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
PERIOD OF KING TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER OF EACH DAILY
HIGH TIDE (THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE INTO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, WITH SOME NUISANCE TO NEAR-MINOR WATER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE, THOUGH IT IS
MARGINAL. HAVE DECIDED TO PUT OUT A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
THESE AREAS FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED NE/E
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOCAL TIDAL RIVERS, AND POTENTIALLY AT DUCK AND
WACHAPREAGUE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...NB
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