623
FXUS61 KAKQ 120717
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
~2.0". MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, WHICH SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY CONFINED
TO NEAR THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5" PROVIDES A FLASH
FLOOD CONCERN. THE LATEST ERO FROM WPC INCLUDES MOST OF NE NC IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MINUS
THE EASTERN SHORE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE LATEST CAMS ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT MORPHOLOGY OF THE CONVECTION AND
LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LATEST FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE MARFC SHOWING MOST OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS) ABLE TO RECEIVE 3-4" IN 3 HR BEFORE CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING, GIVEN THE DROUGHT STATUS, PROVIDES A STRONG ARGUMENT
AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BY TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WILL
NOTE THAT SPC HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT FRI
(JULY 17), HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING THE RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A WARMUP WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE NEAR 100F
DURING THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT ALOFT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA,
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY. EMBEDDED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TERMINALS
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING EMBEDDED STORMS AND FURTHER
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS (~1500-2500 FT) ARE LIKELY
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AT RIC/SBY/PHF. CIGS LIKELY HOVER
AROUND MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER 18Z, ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME ENE 5-10 KT.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WNW THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE CAPES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED BELOW MWS CRITERIA SO FAR.
WINDS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 5- 10 KTS OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1 FT OR LESS, WHILE SEAS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS ARE BEING MEASURED BETWEEN 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS VEER TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WEAK CAA
NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES HUNG UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY MONDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY
STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE MIDDLE BAY DROPPING OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND THE LOWER BAY (INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE BAY)
REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD
BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS) SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND STARTING EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR 5 FT SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES
TODAY, WITH A LOW RIP RISK PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME ELEVATED AND
ONSHORE, LINGERING INTO MONDAY. LINGERING STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES.
MEANWHILE, A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD SWELL (~7 SEC) WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...NB
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