604
FXUS61 KAKQ 121056
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO
3-5".
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. A SUB-TROPICAL
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES
~2.0". MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW TALL AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES, WHICH SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY CONFINED
TO NEAR THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5" PROVIDES A FLASH
FLOOD CONCERN. THE LATEST ERO FROM WPC INCLUDES MOST OF NE NC IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MINUS
THE EASTERN SHORE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK. THE LATEST CAMS ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT MORPHOLOGY OF THE CONVECTION AND
LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LATEST FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE MARFC SHOWING MOST OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF
URBAN AREAS) ABLE TO RECEIVE 3-4" IN 3 HR BEFORE CAUSING FLASH
FLOODING, GIVEN THE DROUGHT STATUS, PROVIDES A STRONG ARGUMENT
AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BY TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WILL
NOTE THAT SPC HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT FRI
(JULY 17), HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING THE RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A WARMUP WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE NEAR 100F
DURING THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT ALOFT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN NC,
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EMBEDDED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. PROB30S CONTINUE FOR
TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING EMBEDDED STORMS AND
FURTHER DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS (ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SBY).
MVFR CIGS (~1500-2500 FT) LIKELY HOVER AROUND MVFR/VFR THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z,
ESPECIALLY AT SBY. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE 5-10 KT, HIGHER AND
VARIABLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, NE WINDS 5-10 KT ARE COMMON
OVER THE BAY AND THE EASTERN VA RIVERS, WITH W-SW WINDS ~10 KT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING THE VA CAPES REGION INTO THE
NE NC WATERS. WINDS VEER TO THE NNE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WEAK CAA NUDGES INTO THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. STILL ANTICIPATE THE
FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH NE/ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND, THE YORK AND LOWER JAMES RIVERS, AND
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MIDDLE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
DROPPING OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE LOWER BAY
(INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE BAY), ADJACENT VA RIVERS AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS) THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND STARTING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 5-6 FT SEAS
NEARSHORE.
OUTLOOK: WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY, AS WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY.
THESE LINGERING STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. MEANWHILE,
A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD SWELL (~7-8 SEC) WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...MAM/NB
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