085
FXUS61 KAKQ 121807
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS. WPC HAS EXPANDED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INTO VA UP TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO 3-5".
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO
3-5".
A QUASI WEST-EAST UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KY
THROUGH VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE LOCALLY ALREADY EXCEEDED 2.5-3". SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE GIVEN PWATS OF 2"+. ADDITIONALLY, ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW TALL, SKINNY CAPE, DECENT UPPER LEVEL W WINDS FOR VENTING
CONVECTION (45-50 KT ANVIL LEVEL STORM RELATIVE WINDS ON
MESOANALYSIS), AND A WIND PROFILE THAT GOES FROM NE SURFACE
WINDS TO N WINDS IN THE MID- LEVELS BELOW 500MB TO W WINDS AT
500MB AND ABOVE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC, A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5" ARE POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE CENTRAL TO SOUTH- CENTRAL VA INTO
NE NC WHERE A SWATH OF 1.5-3"+ HAS ALREADY OCCURRED SINCE LAST
NIGHT. THE 12Z HREF HAD A 30% PROB FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS ACROSS THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 10-30% CHANCE ACROSS NE NC
OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH FUTURE GUIDANCE, A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
THAT BEING SAID, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BY TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR ALL WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WILL
NOTE THAT SPC HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT FRI
(JULY 17), HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FROM THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S INLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING THE RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A WARMUP WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE NEAR 100F
DURING THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A QUASI WEST-EAST UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KY
THROUGH VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. AS SUCH, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY (WHERE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN) THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HAVE ADDED TEMPOS FOR IFR VIS DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WHILE OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS
LOW GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS NE
NC (POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ECG) OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE VCSH FOR
THE ECG TAF OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING. ECG MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR CIGS. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ECG. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, NE WINDS 5-10 KT ARE COMMON
OVER THE BAY AND THE EASTERN VA RIVERS, WITH W-SW WINDS ~10 KT
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING THE VA CAPES REGION INTO THE
NE NC WATERS. WINDS VEER TO THE NNE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AS WEAK CAA NUDGES INTO THE
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. STILL ANTICIPATE THE
FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH NE/ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND, THE YORK AND LOWER JAMES RIVERS, AND
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MIDDLE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
DROPPING OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE LOWER BAY
(INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE BAY), ADJACENT VA RIVERS AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY,
AN E-SE SWELL SHOULD BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS) THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SCA CONTINUES
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND STARTING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 5-6 FT SEAS
NEARSHORE.
OUTLOOK: WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY, AS WINDS
BECOME ELEVATED AND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY.
THESE LINGERING STRONG E-NE WIND WAVES WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. MEANWHILE,
A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD SWELL (~7-8 SEC) WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...KMC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM/NB
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