611
FXUS61 KAKQ 270513
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
113 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
3) SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN
MAINLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
NORTHWEST UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE AXIS OF A SEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH SHIFTED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
THIS IS TYPICALLY A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS
AREA, AND WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR IN MAKING UP THE THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACTING TO LIMIT SOME INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY TODAY/TONIGHT. THE NW FLOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE ENVIRONMENT AND BRING GOOD
KINEMATICS TO HELP SUSTAIN STORMS WHEN THEY DEVELOP. WITH THE
LOWERING HEIGHTS, DRIER AIR ALOFT, AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THIS
EVENING COULD BRING A MIX OF A WIND THREAT AND POTENTIALLY A HAIL
THREAT. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A LATE START TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS, PAIRED WITH THE BEST ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND BETTER INSTABILITY, WILL GENERALLY
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF I-95 THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE FARTHER EAST THESE STORMS PROGRESS, THEY
WILL ENTER A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT WITH AN
EARLIER INITIATION TIME AND COASTAL AREAS BEING INCLUDED IN THE
ACTION. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
ABOUT 30KT OF BULK SHEAR AND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE, COULD HELP
PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS. WILL NOTE THAT SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
LESSER COVERAGE AND IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE SEA-BREEZE INITIATION.
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND HOW THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.
THE SET-UP TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL STILL BE
UNDER NW FLOW AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BECOMING A CUT OFF
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS LOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT TIMING. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A STRONG SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SHEAR LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
BY JULY STANDARDS, AND THE MODELS MOSTLY DEPICT DECENT INSTABILITY
AND EVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 6.0-6.5C, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
ROBUST DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. AS ALWAYS THOUGH, TIMING OF
THE STORMS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS,
THOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT STORM INITIATION WILL IN THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90F, ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN LOW-MID 70S.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT FLOODING, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN/FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY, THEN MAINLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW, THERE COLD BE SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL
HAS LOW POPS, BUT THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR AREA. THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS W AND NW OF
THE TERMINALS. THESE SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT PERHAPS SBY THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE, SOME BR AND MVFR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT PHF/RIC BETWEEN 09-13Z. THERE IS A LOW
CHC OF IFR, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TAFS. VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS QUICKLY DEVELOPS BY LATE
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
21-23Z. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
RIC. COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSE (INLAND) OR SE 5-10 KT
TODAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NNW. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT POPS ARE MUCH LOWER
THAN ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE S-SE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF LOW-END SCAS WITH S-SW WINDS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM N TO E AT 5-10KT. SEAS
ARE 2-3 FT, WITH WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SFC
HIGH BECOMES CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE. LIGHT S-SE FLOW IS EXPECTED
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND MAINLY 1 FT WAVES IN THE BAY AND RIVERS. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
S AND SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ~15 KT W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT
IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ~20 KT W/ GUSTS TO 25 KT OFFSHORE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING, THOUGH A BETTER
CHANCE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
5-15 KT AND SHIFT TO THE NW. NW WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH LOW-END SCAS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT
THIS RANGE.
A MODERATE RIP RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES DUE TO SEAS AROUND 3 FT. THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPS TO
LOW FOR ALL BEACHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/NB
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...ERI
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