668
FXUS61 KAKQ 271029
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
629 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
3) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
NORTHWEST UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER US AT THE SAME TIME. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORMS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PIEDMONT SINCE LAST
EVENING, WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE STORMS IN LOUISA COUNTY AND NEAR
FARMVILLE. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STRONG WITH 40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MODEST GIVEN THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST (MAINLY WEST OF THE BAY)
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS WE HEAD TOWARD
SUNRISE.
THAT WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 10-11 PM. STORM TIMING TODAY SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WHEN COMPARED TO THE VERY LATE TIMING
YESTERDAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLIGHTLY INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH THE NW FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE, 25-30 KT OF BULK
SHEAR, AND MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH LARGE
HAIL CAN'T COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE URBAN AREAS OF SE
VA. THE HREF ENSEMBLE HAS 30% PROBS OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC, WITH AT LEAST 10% PROBS FOR 3"/3 HOURS IN OTHER COASTAL
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE SET-UP TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE THE BEST
SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT, THE LOW COULD DEEPEN TO 993MB
WITH -2 TO -3 SIGMA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING IT IS LATE JULY. THERE WILL BE A BELT OF 40-50 KT 500MB
WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE MORNING, THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM 2-10 PM. STORMS LIKELY INITIATE NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY MOVING SE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING. STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME NW. GIVEN THE 500MB FLOW, IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR BY JULY STANDARDS, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO
6.5C...THERE COULD BE A ROBUST DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO NEAR THE COAST AS LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MORE BACKED HERE. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WHILE THE PARAMETERS LOOK
DECENT FOR SEVERE WX, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM
OVERNIGHT/MORNING MCS ACTIVITY WHICH IS THE MAIN THING THAT COULD
RESULT IN A LOWER SEVERE THREAT THAN ANTICIPATED (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA). HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F, ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DEW
POINTS IN LOW-MID 70S. STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL ACT
TO LIMIT FLOODING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING,
MAINLY IN URBAN/FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE COLD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY (MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY). THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS
MOSTLY DRY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS
LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT MONDAY...
TSTMS WEST OF THE BAY (AND INVOF RIC) HAVE FINALLY WEAKENED
THOUGH THERE IS A STORM THAT COULD IMPACT SBY BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z. HAVE ADDED A QUICK TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS SCATTERED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 16-18Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 21-23Z. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT RIC. COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO 30-40 KT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SSE (INLAND) OR
SE 5-10 KT TODAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY
AFTN/EVENING AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NNW. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT POPS ARE MUCH LOWER
THAN ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT MONDAY...
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LOW-END SCAS WITH S-SW WINDS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH S-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY AND
RIVERS. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
OUTSIDE OF AFTN/EARLY EVENING TSTMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SMWS. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT (W/
GUSTS OF 15 KT POSSIBLE). THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. S AND SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND 20 KT W/ GUSTS TO 25
KT OFFSHORE. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 50-70% FROM 1-7 PM TUE ON THE BAY. SCAS ON THE OCEAN
ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS LOCAL PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS ARE BELOW
50%, THIS IS A WAA REGIME, AND SEAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO 5 FT IF
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THAN S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TUESDAY IS
THE BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 KT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW. NW WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS
RANGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...ERI
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