557
FXUS61 KAKQ 280714
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
314 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS TODAY WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE DEEPENING HAS ALREADY STARTED, WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS BEING
OBSERVED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO AND IS ORGANIZING INTO AN MCS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS BY
JUST FAR ENOUGH TO OUR W/SW AS TO NOT INHIBIT SFC HEATING (AND THUS
INSTABILITY) IN A MEANINGFUL WAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHC OF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
FROM THIS FEATURE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHEAST TODAY, AND IN FACT, COULD DEEPEN TO 995MB WITH -2 TO -3
SIGMA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING IT IS LATE
JULY. THERE WILL BE A BELT OF 35-45 KT 500MB WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF
THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR W/SW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER-MID 70S DEW PTS. THIS, COUPLED WITH SOLID 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 DEGREES C, SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE TO RISE TO 2000-2500
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE CAMS WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING, CONVECTIVE MODE, AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP JUST TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NW-SE DURING THE LATE AFTN-EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
STORMS IS FROM 3-7 PM N/NW, 5-8 PM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO RICHMOND
TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AND FROM 6-11 PM IN SE VA/NE NC. WHETHER
THE STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE OR REMAIN MORE DISCRETE IS NOT
KNOWN. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH
WOULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST WHETHER STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE OR
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE/LINE SEGMENTS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE HAIL
THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. LASTLY, A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
MORE BACKED. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH 30% WIND PROBS AND A 5% TORNADO RISK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE THAT THE DEVELOPING MCS
OVER OH BECOMES STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER NE THAN EXPECTED. IF
THIS HAPPENS, IT COULD POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATE OUR ENVIRONMENT AND
LEAD TO A LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT FLOODING, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN/FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW, THERE COLD BE SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DOWN ON THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONSISTENCY. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW. TSTM
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z, THEN CIGS MAY LOWER TO 7000-10000 FT LATER
THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY
ARRIVES. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS DURING THE 19-02Z TIMEFRAME. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
STILL THINK THAT MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE
STORMS. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN BEFORE TRACKING FROM NW-SE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE AFTN-LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, WITH DRY/VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY
RETURNING AFTER 06Z WED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR
ALL TERMINALS, BUT WILL LOOK AT ADDING TEMPOS WITH THE 12Z TAFS.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT
POPS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY
LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HAIL,
WATERSPOUTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TODAY WITH SOME SHOWING IT OVER
PA AND OTHERS OVER VA AND THE LOCAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, WPC SHOWS
THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NY. IN ANY CASE, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
TODAY BEFORE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AS
SUCH, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SCAS BEGIN A BIT EARLIER (10 AM EDT) FOR THE UPPER BAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
REMAINS THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS UNDER SCAS. WILL NOTE THAT WINDS MAY BECOME SSE (OR
EVEN SE AT TIMES) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF CONVECTION. SCAS
END AT 1 AM WED. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS, HAIL
(POTENTIALLY LARGE/SEVERE), WATERSPOUTS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INTERFERE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN EITHER WEAKER WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO CLOUD COVER INTERFERING WITH WAA OR STRONGER
WINDS OVERALL DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STORMS TAPER OFF
FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
WINDS BECOME W 10-15 KT TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BECOME NW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH A SECONDARY SURGE. SEVERAL CAMS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCAS CONDITIONS WITH THE NW SURGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE
SCAS BEYOND EARLY TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE LULL IN
SCA CRITERIA WINDS TONIGHT APPEARS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SECONDARY
SURGE SCAS SEPARATE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF
NW WINDS IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. OTHERWISE, A
PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING WED. A PERIOD OF 4-5 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-639-650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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