271
FXUS61 KAKQ 281733
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS TODAY WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE DEEPENING HAS ALREADY STARTED, WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS BEING
OBSERVED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OHIO AND IS ORGANIZING INTO AN MCS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PASS BY
JUST FAR ENOUGH TO OUR W/SW AS TO NOT INHIBIT SFC HEATING (AND THUS
INSTABILITY) IN A MEANINGFUL WAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHC OF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
FROM THIS FEATURE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHEAST TODAY, AND IN FACT, COULD DEEPEN TO 995MB WITH -2 TO -3
SIGMA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING IT IS LATE
JULY. THERE WILL BE A BELT OF 35-45 KT 500MB WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF
THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SINCE THE UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR W/SW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER-MID 70S DEW PTS. THIS, COUPLED WITH SOLID 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 DEGREES C, SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE TO RISE TO 2000-2500
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE CAMS WITH RESPECT TO EXACT
TIMING, CONVECTIVE MODE, AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP JUST TO OUR
NORTH DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NW-SE DURING THE LATE AFTN-EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
STORMS IS FROM 3-7 PM N/NW, 5-8 PM FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA TO RICHMOND
TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AND FROM 6-11 PM IN SE VA/NE NC. WHETHER
THE STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE OR REMAIN MORE DISCRETE IS NOT
KNOWN. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH
WOULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST WHETHER STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE OR
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE/LINE SEGMENTS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE HAIL
THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. LASTLY, A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
MORE BACKED. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH 30% WIND PROBS AND A 5% TORNADO RISK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE THAT THE DEVELOPING MCS
OVER OH BECOMES STRONGER AND TRACKS FARTHER NE THAN EXPECTED. IF
THIS HAPPENS, IT COULD POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATE OUR ENVIRONMENT AND
LEAD TO A LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT FLOODING, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN/FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW, THERE COLD BE SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DOWN ON THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR CONSISTENCY. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW. TSTM
CHANCES MAY RETURN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS OF 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NNW. THE WIND WAS SSW 8-12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20KT.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED OVER PA AND WV AND SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTHERN VA BY ~20Z, THEN TRACK NW-SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM ABOUT 21-04Z. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AS A PREVAILING GROUP. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS, MAINLY AT SBY. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE WIND BECOMES
CALM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A NW WIND OF
8-12KT (LOCALLY 10-15KT GUSTING TO ~20KT AT SBY). AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
QUITE LOW.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEEK AND LIKELY LINGER
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED THE COLD FROPA
AND ANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOME W 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT, A PERIOD OF
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING WED. A PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-639-650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...JDM
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