397
FXUS61 KAKQ 281934
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA TO THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 10 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO
POSSIBLE.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER
NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE AXIS TO THE SW
THROUGH WV. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND THERE IS STILL A SUBTLE BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF THE CHES. BAY, MAINLY A WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO SSE.
GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS DEPICT VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING RATHER FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS IS 35-40KT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA, AND SBCAPE IS GENERALLY
2000-3000J/KG. LIMITING FACTORS CURRENTLY ARE RATHER POOR MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL DCAPE. HOWEVER, THESE ARE PROGGED
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TSTMS PUSH SE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ONLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NNW. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND THIS
COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST THE COUNTIES SW OF THE
RIC METRO.
TIMING IS A LITTLE LATER, LIKELY DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND OF INITIALLY MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO MORE A A LINEAR MODE IS STILL EXPECTED. THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING IS FROM 5-7 PM N/NW, 7-9 PM FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL VA TO RICHMOND TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AND FROM 8-11 PM
IN SE VA/NE NC. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH
WOULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST WHETHER STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE OR
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE/LINE SEGMENTS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE
HAIL THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE AT THE ONSET. LASTLY, A COUPLE OF
BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW- LEVEL WIND WILL BE
MORE BACKED. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH 30% WIND PROBS BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT.
STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICK, WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT FLOODING,
BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN URBAN/FLOOD
PRONE AREAS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE TSTMS MAY TRY
TO CONGEAL LATER THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO TREND MAINLY DRY. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW.
OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY. TSTM CHANCES MAY RETURN
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES, BUT
IT MAY BE MORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS OF 18Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NNW. THE WIND WAS SSW 8-12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20KT.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED OVER PA AND WV AND SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTHERN VA BY ~20Z, THEN TRACK NW-SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM ABOUT 21-04Z. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS WILL BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AS A PREVAILING GROUP. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS, MAINLY AT SBY. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE WIND BECOMES
CALM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A NW WIND OF
8-12KT (LOCALLY 10-15KT GUSTING TO ~20KT AT SBY). AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
QUITE LOW.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEEK AND LIKELY LINGER
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROCEED THE COLD FROPA
AND ANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOME W 10-15 KT
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND THEN NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. AFTER THAT, A PERIOD OF
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING WED. A PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-639-650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...JDM
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