841
FXUS61 KAKQ 291733
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
LATE THIS WEEK.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHEAST CONUS COAST. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA AT THIS HOUR, WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW PTS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. CONVECTION HAS
ENDED. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WX IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY
SLOWLY TRACKS FROM NY/NJ TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TO OUR SE LATER TODAY...WITH 60S DEW PTS ARRIVING IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FAR SE VA AND NE NC. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
80S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO CUMULUS GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY, AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SE WHERE DEW PTS (AND THUS
INSTABILITY) WILL BE HIGHEST. WILL HAVE NO HIGHER THAN 20% POPS AND
HAVE NOTED THAT THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS NO POPS AT ALL FOR TODAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER AWAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW.
OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND MOSTLY DRY WX CONTINUING. A
WEAKER TROUGH (MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME) ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEW PTS RISE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 18Z/29 TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD BASES ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 3KFT NEAR THE COAST, SO
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT
THINK THAT SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART. LATER THIS EVENING,
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. ECG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED, BUT
STUCK WITH VCSH FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS EVEN TOO LOW FOR A
PROB30. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF SURGE OF NW WINDS ARRIVES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. ANOTHER, WEAKER SURGE OF NW WINDS ARRIVES TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING N/NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES
BAY THIS MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR SCAS GIVEN WIND PROBS
FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 50%. HOWEVER, IF WINDS OVERPERFORM,
A SHORT-FUSED SCA MAY BE NEEDED. A SECOND, BRIEF NW SURGE IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, WIND PROBS FOR THIS SURGE (FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS) WERE
BELOW 40%. OTHERWISE, A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SE/S SURGE
LATE SAT/SAT EVENING.
WAVES OF 2-3 FT THIS MORNING SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SEAS OF 3-4 FT DIMINISH TO 2-3 FT. GIVEN NW WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RMM
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