016
FXUS61 KAKQ 291903
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSION SECTION UPDATED, BUT NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
LATE THIS WEEK.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED-
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
IT HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON FOR THE WAKEFIELD
FA AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT. SOME OF THAT
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR MOST AND THEREFORE LOWER HUMIDITY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM IS POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE SE WHERE DEW PTS (AND THUS INSTABILITY) ARE A
TOUCH HIGHER. DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP POPS FOR SOUTHEAST TO ~30%
GIVEN THE ADDED CONFIDENCE FROM THE 12Z CAMS. THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER AWAY TO
THE NE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, AS
LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW. OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT
FOR LATE JULY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR AVERAGE AND MOSTLY DRY WX CONTINUING. A
WEAKER TROUGH (MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME) ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, DEW PTS RISE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES DURING
THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX
IS NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 18Z/29 TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD BASES ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 3KFT NEAR THE COAST, SO
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, BUT
THINK THAT SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART. LATER THIS EVENING,
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. ECG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED, BUT
STUCK WITH VCSH FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS EVEN TOO LOW FOR A
PROB30. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR LIKELY PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF SURGE OF NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
BEHIND A TROUGH PASSAGE.
- WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
HOWEVER, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NW WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20-22 KT LATER TONIGHT/THU AM (SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING) AS A TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
BEYOND TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT THE NW WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, THE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO UP TO 15 KT BY SATURDAY EVENING. S-SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
WAVES OF 1-2 FT IN THE BAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SEAS OF 2-3
FT OVER THE OCEAN. WAVES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 3-4 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MRD
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